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Poisson model rates Volos NFC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Volos NFC vs Levadiakos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Super League 1 clash, Conference League Group - 4 as Volos NFC welcome Levadiakos to Panthessaliko Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 10 May 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Volos NFC — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters this season, Volos NFC have posted 2W 5D 3L at Panthessaliko Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Levadiakos stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

On the road, Levadiakos have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Volos NFC) versus 0.80 (Levadiakos). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour Levadiakos, who boast 6 victories compared to 3 for Volos NFC.

The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2026, ended 2–5 with Levadiakos winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Levadiakos have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Data

Volos NFC trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Levadiakos trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 48% versus Levadiakos 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 48% | Levadiakos 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.51 xG and Levadiakos 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.935 / defence 1.118 | Levadiakos attack 1.056 / defence 1.241. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.065. Levadiakos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.241 — this is suppressing Volos NFC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Volos NFC games / 52 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Volos NFC 41% | Draw 29% | Levadiakos 30%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Levadiakos 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Volos NFC as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Volos NFC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Volos NFC 70% | Levadiakos 50% BTTS from recent games.

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