OFI 0-2 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates OFI at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Conference League Group - 3 as OFI welcome Aris Thessalonikis to Pankritio Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 May 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
OFI — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
OFI at Pankritio Stadium this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Pankritio Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Aris Thessalonikis stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (OFI) versus 1.20 (Aris Thessalonikis). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for OFI, 2 for Aris Thessalonikis and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Mar 2026, ended 2–0 with OFI winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
OFI in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Aris Thessalonikis in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 48% versus Aris Thessalonikis 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 62% | Aris Thessalonikis 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.37 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.111 / defence 1.110 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.819 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.065. Data: 52 OFI games / 52 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 44% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 24%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Aris Thessalonikis 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is OFI at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: OFI 10% | Aris Thessalonikis 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Conference League Group - 3 | Venue: Pankritio Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 44% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG OFI 1.37 / Aris Thessalonikis 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.111 / def 1.110 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.819 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: OFI (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
OFI xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Aris Thessalonikis xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 3 May 2026 at Pankritio Stadium.
What was the final score in OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
OFI 0 - 2 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Pankritio Stadium.
What competition is OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Conference League Group - 3 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 44% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both OFI and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (7 meetings): OFI 4W | Draws 1 | Aris Thessalonikis 2W.
What form are OFI and Aris Thessalonikis in?
OFI (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from OFI's attack rating (1.11) and Aris Thessalonikis's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Aris Thessalonikis's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
44%
2.27
31%
3.18
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
OFI xG
Total xG
2.34
0.97
Aris Thessalonikis xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
17%
5.96
6%
16.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.8 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are OFI and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for OFI and 0.97 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, OFI have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 21W 11D 28L record — D-L-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 23W 21D 16L from 60 games, 1.50 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: OFI on 1.23 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, OFI have posted 1.33 PPG from 30 outings (12W 4D 14L).
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 9W 9D 12L from 30 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
OFI are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.10 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Current Season
Aris Thessalonikis
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 21W 11D 28L in their last 60 games (1.23 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 23W 21D 16L in their last 60 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
OFI's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.33 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.20 PPG.
Have OFI or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Aris Thessalonikis have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Oct 2025, when OFI won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OFI's record when hosting Aris Thessalonikis specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
OFI
1
Draws
5
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 4, Aris Thessalonikis have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 2-1 OFI.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Aris Thessalonikis?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 43%, Aris Thessalonikis 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (OFI) and 37% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: OFI have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of OFI's recent matches and 57% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of OFI's recent games and 37% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Aris Thessalonikis cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over OFI.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat OFI 0-2 at Pankritio Stadium, Conference League Group - 3, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.37 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.97 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. OFI fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Aris Thessalonikis outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.11 / defence 1.11 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.82 / defence 0.95, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 44% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 24%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Aris Thessalonikis win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 62%, Aris Thessalonikis 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OFI 1.23 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aris Thessalonikis win broke the near-deadlock. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.