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Poisson rates OFI at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Super League 1 clash, Conference League Group - 3 as OFI welcome Aris Thessalonikis to Pankritio Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 May 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form Guide

OFI — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

OFI at Pankritio Stadium this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Pankritio Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Aris Thessalonikis stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (OFI) versus 1.20 (Aris Thessalonikis). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The fixture history tells a clear story: OFI have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 8 past contests while Aris Thessalonikis have managed just 2 wins.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Mar 2026, ended 2–0 with OFI winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both OFI and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Patterns

OFI in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Aris Thessalonikis in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 48% versus Aris Thessalonikis 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 62% | Aris Thessalonikis 32%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.37 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.111 / defence 1.110 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.819 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.065. Data: 52 OFI games / 52 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: OFI 44% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 24%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Aris Thessalonikis 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is OFI at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: OFI 10% | Aris Thessalonikis 50% BTTS from recent games.

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