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Poisson rates OFI at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this OFI vs Levadiakos encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Super League 1 clash, Conference League Group - 2 as OFI welcome Levadiakos to Pankritio Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 April 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, OFI stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.

OFI's home record at Pankritio Stadium: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Levadiakos — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Levadiakos's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

OFI carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, OFI have won 2, Levadiakos 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 3–2 with OFI winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

OFI in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Levadiakos in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 49% versus Levadiakos 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 63% | Levadiakos 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.85 xG and Levadiakos 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.120 / defence 1.118 | Levadiakos attack 1.066 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.064. Levadiakos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.265 — this is suppressing OFI's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 OFI games / 52 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: OFI 49% | Draw 26% | Levadiakos 25%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Levadiakos 4.00. OFI hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates OFI as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: OFI 20% | Levadiakos 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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