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Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Super League 1 encounter, Conference League Group - 2 sees Volos NFC travel to Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium to take on Aris Thessalonikis. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 April 2026, 17:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Aris Thessalonikis — All Games: 1W 7D 2L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 1W 8D 1L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Volos NFC's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Aris Thessalonikis 1.00 PPG, Volos NFC 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

The fixture history tells a clear story: Aris Thessalonikis have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 8 past contests while Volos NFC have managed just 1 wins.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The historical record gives Aris Thessalonikis a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Data

Aris Thessalonikis trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games).

Volos NFC trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 49% versus Volos NFC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Aris Thessalonikis 30% | Volos NFC 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.08 xG and Volos NFC 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.697 / defence 0.908 | Volos NFC attack 0.803 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.064. Aris Thessalonikis's attack strength of 0.697 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 52 Aris Thessalonikis games / 52 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 40% | Draw 36% | Volos NFC 24%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.50 | Draw 2.78 | Volos NFC 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Aris Thessalonikis are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.85 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 50% | Volos NFC 40% BTTS from recent games.

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