Levadiakos 5-2 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Levadiakos at 59% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levadiakos vs Volos NFC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Conference League Group - 3 sees Volos NFC travel to Levadia Stadium to take on Levadiakos. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 May 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Levadiakos have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Levadia Stadium, Levadiakos have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Levadiakos are significantly better at Levadia Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Volos NFC away from home this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Levadiakos 0.80 PPG, Volos NFC 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 5 wins for Levadiakos, 3 for Volos NFC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Jan 2026, ended 3–1 with Levadiakos winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Levadiakos in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Volos NFC in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 56% versus Volos NFC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 56% | Volos NFC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.94 xG and Volos NFC 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 1.271 / defence 1.070 | Volos NFC attack 0.819 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.065. Levadiakos carry an above-average attack strength of 1.271 — their λ of 1.94 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 52 Levadiakos games / 52 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 59% | Draw 25% | Volos NFC 16%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Volos NFC 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Levadiakos (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Levadiakos at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Levadiakos 70% | Volos NFC 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Conference League Group - 3 | Venue: Levadia Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 59% | Draw 25% | Volos NFC 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 54% | xG Levadiakos 1.94 / Volos NFC 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 1.271 / def 1.070 | Volos NFC attack 0.819 / def 1.171 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Levadiakos (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Volos NFC xG
54%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs Volos NFC kick off?
Levadiakos vs Volos NFC kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 3 May 2026 at Levadia Stadium.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs Volos NFC?
Levadiakos 5 - 2 Volos NFC.
Where is Levadiakos vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Levadia Stadium.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Volos NFC part of?
Levadiakos vs Volos NFC is a Conference League Group - 3 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 59% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Levadiakos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Levadiakos and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Volos NFC?
Record (8 meetings): Levadiakos 5W | Draws 0 | Volos NFC 3W.
What form are Levadiakos and Volos NFC in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Volos NFC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Levadiakos's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Volos NFC's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.94. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus Levadiakos's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levadiakos Win
59%
1.69
25%
4.03
16%
6.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.88
0.93
Volos NFC xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
6.30
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
14%
6.97
Win to Nil
23%
4.29
2%
43.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 10.2 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Levadiakos and 0.93 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Volos NFC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Levadiakos's recent record stands at 25W 18D 21L from 64 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five.
Volos NFC, meanwhile, have gone 20W 11D 33L across 64 games — 1.11 PPG, with D-L-W-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Levadiakos on 1.45 PPG, Volos NFC on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Levadiakos have managed 14W 8D 10L from 32 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Volos NFC's away record stands at 11W 2D 19L across 32 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Levadiakos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Levadiakos are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 1.02 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Current Season
Volos NFC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 25W 18D 21L in their last 64 games (1.45 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 20W 11D 33L in their last 64 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or Volos NFC away?
Levadiakos's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.56 PPG; Volos NFC away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Levadiakos and Volos NFC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Levadiakos have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Feb 2023, when Volos NFC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Levadiakos's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Levadiakos
0
Draws
3
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 7, Volos NFC have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Volos NFC 0-3 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and Volos NFC?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 56%, Volos NFC 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Levadiakos) and 53% (Volos NFC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Volos NFC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play Volos NFC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 44% of Volos NFC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Levadiakos's matches and 53% of Volos NFC's.
Do Levadiakos and Volos NFC tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Levadiakos run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Volos NFC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levadiakos beat Volos NFC 5-2 at Levadia Stadium, Conference League Group - 3, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 1.94 xG and Volos NFC 0.93 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Levadiakos beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Volos NFC outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 1.27 / defence 1.07 against Volos NFC attack 0.82 / defence 1.17, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 59% | Draw 25% | Volos NFC 16%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 56%, Volos NFC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levadiakos's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Volos NFC's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Levadiakos 1.45 PPG, Volos NFC 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levadiakos win broke the near-deadlock. Levadiakos (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm. Volos NFC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.