Levadiakos 1-1 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Levadiakos at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Levadiakos face Aris Thessalonikis.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Levadia Stadium plays host to Levadiakos versus Aris Thessalonikis in Super League 1 (Conference League Group - 1). Kick-off: Sunday 5 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Levadiakos (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Levadiakos's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Levadiakos are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Aris Thessalonikis's record over their last 10 games: 1W 6D 3L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Levadiakos, 0.90 for Aris Thessalonikis — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Levadiakos, 2 for Aris Thessalonikis and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 25 Jan 2026, ended Levadiakos 2–2 Aris Thessalonikis — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Levadiakos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Aris Thessalonikis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 59% versus Aris Thessalonikis 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 59% | Aris Thessalonikis 31%). Note also that Aris Thessalonikis surrender HT leads in 37% of cases while Levadiakos recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.61 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 1.313 / defence 1.082 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.789 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.063. Levadiakos carry an above-average attack rating of 1.313 — their 1.61 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Aris Thessalonikis's attack rating of 0.789 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.91. Data: built from Levadiakos's last 52 games and Aris Thessalonikis's last 52.
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 52% | Draw 29% | Aris Thessalonikis 19%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 1.92 | Draw 3.49 | Aris Thessalonikis 5.18. Levadiakos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Levadiakos as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Levadiakos if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Levadiakos 60% (last 10 home games) | Aris Thessalonikis 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Conference League Group - 1 | Venue: Levadia Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 52% | Draw 29% | Aris Thessalonikis 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Levadiakos 1.61 / Aris Thessalonikis 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 1.313 / def 1.082 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.789 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Levadiakos (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Aris Thessalonikis xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis FAQs
What time does Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Levadia Stadium.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Levadiakos 1 - 1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Levadia Stadium.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Super League 1 fixture (Conference League Group - 1) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 52% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Levadiakos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Levadiakos's attack at 1.31x the league average against Aris Thessalonikis's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Aris Thessalonikis's attack (0.79x) against Levadiakos's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from Levadiakos's last 52 games and Aris Thessalonikis's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levadiakos Win
52%
1.92
29%
3.49
19%
5.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.52
0.91
Aris Thessalonikis xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
5.18
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
21%
4.77
4%
25.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 11.8 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Levadiakos and 0.91 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Levadiakos come into this having played 58 games, going 25W 15D 18L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, Aris Thessalonikis sit at 1.48 PPG from 58 outings (22W 20D 16L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Levadiakos against 1.48 for Aris Thessalonikis. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Levadiakos's home form reads 14W 6D 9L across their last 29 home games, a 1.66 PPG return.
Away from home, Aris Thessalonikis have taken 1.21 points per game from their last 29 away games (9W 8D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Levadiakos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Levadiakos are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.07 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
Levadiakos (Home) vs Aris Thessalonikis (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Levadiakos
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
❓ Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis Form FAQs
What form are Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 25W 15D 18L in their last 58 games (1.55 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 22W 20D 16L in their last 58 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Levadiakos's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.66 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Levadiakos or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levadiakos have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis, the earliest from August 2022. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Aris Thessalonikis won Aris Thessalonikis 3-0 Levadiakos on 21 Aug 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levadiakos have gone 2W 3D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Aris Thessalonikis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Levadiakos
4
Draws
3
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Levadiakos have won 2, Aris Thessalonikis have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: Levadiakos 3-0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 56% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 59%, Aris Thessalonikis 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Levadiakos) and 38% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Levadiakos's games and 55% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Levadiakos's recent games and 38% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 69% of Aris Thessalonikis's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis finished level at 1-1 at Levadia Stadium, Conference League Group - 1, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 1.61 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.91 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 1.31 / defence 1.08 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.79 / defence 0.94, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 52% | Draw 29% | Aris Thessalonikis 19%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 59%, Aris Thessalonikis 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levadiakos's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Levadiakos 1.55 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Levadiakos (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.