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Poisson model rates Levadiakos at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levadiakos vs Atromitos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 26 as Levadiakos welcome Atromitos to Levadia Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 March 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Levadiakos have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levadiakos's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Levadia Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Levadiakos are significantly better at Levadia Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Atromitos — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Atromitos have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Atromitos's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Levadiakos's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Levadiakos, 3 for Atromitos and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Levadiakos in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Atromitos in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 60% versus Atromitos 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 60% | Atromitos 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.49 xG and Atromitos 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 1.354 / defence 1.182 | Atromitos attack 1.005 / defence 0.820. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.097. Levadiakos carry an above-average attack strength of 1.354 — their λ of 1.49 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 51 Levadiakos games / 51 Atromitos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 40% | Draw 28% | Atromitos 32%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Atromitos 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Levadiakos as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Atromitos (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Levadiakos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Levadiakos 60% | Atromitos 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Levadia Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Mar 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (6 meetings): Levadiakos 1W | Draws 2 | Atromitos 3W • Goals trend: 2.67 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Levadiakos 7 – 9 Atromitos • H2H markets: BTTS 83% | Over 2.5 67% | Win rates: Levadiakos 17% / Draw 33% / Atromitos 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Atromitos (historical win rate 50%) but Poisson model rates Levadiakos as more likely (home 40% / draw 28% / away 32%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals: H2H average 2.67/game (67% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.79 (53% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 83%, Poisson BTTS probability 58% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
📈 Recent Form
• Levadiakos (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-L • Atromitos (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-D • Levadiakos home split: 2.00 PPG from 10 | GF 2.80 / GA 1.20 | CS 4 • Atromitos away split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | CS 4 • Form edge: Atromitos lead by 0.50 PPG (1.60 vs 1.10) • xG vs form (Levadiakos): Poisson projects 1.49 xG vs form scoring rate of 2.80 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (Atromitos): Poisson xG of 1.30 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.10 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.5 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.79 (53% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~50% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 58% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Atromitos on PPG but Poisson rates Levadiakos higher (40% vs 32% for Atromitos) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 40% | Draw 28% | Atromitos 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Levadiakos 1.49 / Atromitos 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 1.354 / def 1.182 | Atromitos attack 1.005 / def 0.820 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Levadiakos (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Atromitos xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs Atromitos kick off?
Levadiakos vs Atromitos kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Levadia Stadium.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs Atromitos?
Levadiakos 1 - 0 Atromitos.
Where is Levadiakos vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Levadia Stadium.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Atromitos part of?
Levadiakos vs Atromitos is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 40% chance of winning, Atromitos a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Levadiakos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Levadiakos and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Atromitos?
• Record (6 meetings): Levadiakos 1W | Draws 2 | Atromitos 3W • Goals trend: 2.67 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Levadiakos 7 – 9 Atromitos • H2H markets: BTTS 83% | Over 2.5 67% | Win rates: Levadiakos 17% / Draw 33% / Atromitos 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Atromitos (historical win rate 50%) but Poisson model rates Levadiakos as more likely (home 40% / draw 28% / away 32%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals: H2H average 2.67/game (67% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.79 (53% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 83%, Poisson BTTS probability 58% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
What form are Levadiakos and Atromitos in?
• Levadiakos (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-L • Atromitos (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-D • Levadiakos home split: 2.00 PPG from 10 | GF 2.80 / GA 1.20 | CS 4 • Atromitos away split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | CS 4 • Form edge: Atromitos lead by 0.50 PPG (1.60 vs 1.10) • xG vs form (Levadiakos): Poisson projects 1.49 xG vs form scoring rate of 2.80 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (Atromitos): Poisson xG of 1.30 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.10 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.5 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.79 (53% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~50% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 58% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Atromitos on PPG but Poisson rates Levadiakos higher (40% vs 32% for Atromitos) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
What do the betting odds say about Levadiakos vs Atromitos?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture