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Poisson model rates Levadiakos at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Levadia Stadium plays host to Levadiakos versus Aris Thessalonikis in Super League 1, Conference League Group - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 5 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form

Levadiakos (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Levadiakos's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Levadia Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Levadiakos are significantly better at Levadia Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Levadiakos, 0.90 for Aris Thessalonikis — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Levadiakos, 2 for Aris Thessalonikis and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Jan 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Levadiakos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Aris Thessalonikis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 59% versus Aris Thessalonikis 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 59% | Aris Thessalonikis 31%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.61 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 1.313 / defence 1.082 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.789 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.063. Levadiakos carry an above-average attack strength of 1.313 — their λ of 1.61 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 52 Levadiakos games / 52 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Levadiakos 52% | Draw 29% | Aris Thessalonikis 19%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | Aris Thessalonikis 5.26. Levadiakos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Levadiakos as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Levadiakos if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Levadiakos 60% | Aris Thessalonikis 50%.

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