Levadiakos 4-1 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Levadiakos face Aris Thessalonikis.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Levadias plays host to Levadiakos versus Aris Thessalonikis in Super League 1 (matchday 23). Kick-off: Sunday 16 February 2025 at 13:00 UK time.

Form

Levadiakos (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Levadiakos's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Aris Thessalonikis's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Levadiakos, 1.60 for Aris Thessalonikis — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Levadiakos, 2 for Aris Thessalonikis and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 3 Nov 2024, ended Levadiakos 1–3 Aris Thessalonikis — a Aris Thessalonikis win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Levadiakos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 22 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 46% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 75%; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Aris Thessalonikis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 22 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 54% versus Aris Thessalonikis 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Levadiakos 41% | Aris Thessalonikis 36%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 0.92 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.759 / defence 1.152 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.983 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.160 / away 1.139. Levadiakos's attack rating of 0.759 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.92. Data: built from Levadiakos's last 22 games and Aris Thessalonikis's last 48.

Result probabilities: Levadiakos 27% | Draw 28% | Aris Thessalonikis 45%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 3.76 | Draw 3.52 | Aris Thessalonikis 2.22. Aris Thessalonikis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Levadiakos 50% (last 10 home games) | Aris Thessalonikis 50% (last 10 away games).

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