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Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis encounter.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Levadias plays host to Levadiakos versus Aris Thessalonikis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Sunday 16 February 2025 at 13:00 UTC.

Form

Levadiakos (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Levadiakos's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Stadio Levadias this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Levadiakos, 1.60 for Aris Thessalonikis — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Levadiakos, 2 for Aris Thessalonikis and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2024, ended 1–3 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Levadiakos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Aris Thessalonikis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 54% versus Aris Thessalonikis 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Levadiakos 41% | Aris Thessalonikis 36%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 0.92 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.759 / defence 1.152 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.983 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.160 / away 1.139. Levadiakos's attack strength of 0.759 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 Levadiakos games / 48 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Levadiakos 27% | Draw 28% | Aris Thessalonikis 45%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Aris Thessalonikis 2.22. Aris Thessalonikis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Levadiakos 50% | Aris Thessalonikis 50%.

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