Aris Thessalonikis 2-1 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Aris Thessalonikis face Panetolikos.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Panetolikos make the trip to Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis to face Aris Thessalonikis in Super League 1 (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Sunday 23 February 2025 at 14:30 UK time.
Current Form
Aris Thessalonikis's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Aris Thessalonikis are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Panetolikos have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Panetolikos's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from Aris Thessalonikis's last 10 home games and Panetolikos's last 10 away games) — Aris Thessalonikis have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Panetolikos in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 4 wins for Aris Thessalonikis, 2 for Panetolikos and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2024, ended Aris Thessalonikis 1–2 Panetolikos — a Panetolikos win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Aris Thessalonikis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Panetolikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 45% versus Panetolikos 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 41% | Panetolikos 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 0.94 xG and Panetolikos 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.983 / defence 0.729 | Panetolikos attack 0.737 / defence 0.766. League average goals — home 1.252 / away 1.157. Panetolikos bring a tight defence (rating 0.766, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Aris Thessalonikis's projected output down. Panetolikos's attack rating of 0.737 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.62. Aris Thessalonikis have a tight defence (rating 0.729), which is pulling Panetolikos's projected output down. Data: built from Aris Thessalonikis's last 49 games and Panetolikos's last 49.
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 42% | Draw 35% | Panetolikos 23%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.40 | Draw 2.85 | Panetolikos 4.30. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS Yes probability 28% | Total xG 1.56. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.56 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Panetolikos's lower xG of 0.62 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 79% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Aris Thessalonikis's last 10 home games and Panetolikos's last 10 away games) averaging 1.7 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Aris Thessalonikis 30% (last 10 home games) | Panetolikos 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 24 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Sunday 23 February 2025 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 42% | Draw 35% | Panetolikos 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% (Under 79%) | BTTS Yes 28% (No 72%) | xG Aris Thessalonikis 0.94 / Panetolikos 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.983 / def 0.729 | Panetolikos attack 0.737 / def 0.766 | league avg home 1.252 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Panetolikos xG
28%
BTTS
46%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos FAQs
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 23 February 2025 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos?
Aris Thessalonikis 2 - 1 Panetolikos.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 24) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 42% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 23% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (72%).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (79%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Aris Thessalonikis's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Panetolikos's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. Flip it around — Panetolikos's attack (0.74x) against Aris Thessalonikis's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.62.
These ratings are built from Aris Thessalonikis's last 49 games and Panetolikos's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 22.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (18.1%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 55% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
42%
2.40
35%
2.85
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
19.7%
Home win
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
1.56
0.62
Panetolikos xG
2.40
42%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
46%
Over 1.5
2.17
54%
Under 1.5
1.85
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.54
72%
BTTS No
1.39
Clean Sheet
54%
1.86
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
22%
4.47
9%
11.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.9 | 13.0 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.7 | 12.3 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.5%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.62 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 1.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Aris Thessalonikis come into this having played 56 games, going 26W 11D 19L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Panetolikos sit at 1.21 PPG from 56 outings (18W 14D 24L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.59 PPG for Aris Thessalonikis against 1.21 for Panetolikos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Aris Thessalonikis's home form reads 15W 6D 7L across their last 28 home games, a 1.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Panetolikos have taken 1.11 points per game from their last 28 away games (7W 10D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 0.98 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
Panetolikos
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis (Home) vs Panetolikos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
Panetolikos
Blended
❓ Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos Form FAQs
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 26W 11D 19L in their last 56 games (1.59 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 18W 14D 24L in their last 56 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Panetolikos away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 1.82 PPG; Panetolikos away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Panetolikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Panetolikos in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos, the earliest from January 2022. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Aris Thessalonikis have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Aris Thessalonikis won Panetolikos 0-4 Aris Thessalonikis on 14 Jan 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 4W 0D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Panetolikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Aris Thessalonikis
0
Draws
3
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Aris Thessalonikis have won 7, Panetolikos have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: Aris Thessalonikis 3-0 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 50%, Panetolikos 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 36% (Panetolikos).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Panetolikos in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 46% of Panetolikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 36% of Panetolikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 68% of Panetolikos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Aris Thessalonikis edge out Panetolikos 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Panetolikos 2-1 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 0.94 xG and Panetolikos 0.62 xG, a combined 1.56. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.98 / defence 0.73 against Panetolikos attack 0.74 / defence 0.77, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 42% | Draw 35% | Panetolikos 23%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 46% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 41%, Panetolikos 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Panetolikos's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Aris Thessalonikis 1.59 PPG, Panetolikos 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aris Thessalonikis win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.