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Poisson rates Levadiakos at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lamia vs Levadiakos encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Levadiakos travel to Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias to take on Lamia. The game is scheduled for Monday 10 February 2025, 16:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamia stand at 0W 2D 8L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Lamia have posted 0W 3D 7L at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias — 0.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Levadiakos — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Levadiakos's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Levadiakos are 0.70 PPG ahead (0.90 vs 0.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Lamia, 0 for Levadiakos and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Lamia in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 62% of games.

Levadiakos in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 33% versus Levadiakos 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lamia 33% | Levadiakos 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 0.76 xG and Levadiakos 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.606 / defence 1.209 | Levadiakos attack 0.897 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.160 / away 1.115. Lamia's attack strength of 0.606 is below the league average — the 0.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Lamia games / 21 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Lamia 23% | Draw 30% | Levadiakos 47%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 4.35 | Draw 3.33 | Levadiakos 2.13. Levadiakos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Levadiakos as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Levadiakos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.97 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lamia 30% | Levadiakos 70%.

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