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Poisson rates Levadiakos at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Volos NFC vs Levadiakos encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 24 as Volos NFC welcome Levadiakos to Panthessaliko Stadio. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 February 2025 at 18:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Volos NFC — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Volos NFC have posted 1W 2D 7L at Panthessaliko Stadio — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Levadiakos stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Levadiakos have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. Levadiakos's 1.40 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Volos NFC's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Volos NFC, 1 for Levadiakos and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2024, ended 2–3 with Levadiakos winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Volos NFC trading profile (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

Levadiakos trading profile (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 44% versus Levadiakos 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 44% | Levadiakos 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 0.92 xG and Levadiakos 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.747 / defence 1.223 | Levadiakos attack 0.944 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 1.149. Volos NFC's attack strength of 0.747 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 49 Volos NFC games / 23 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Volos NFC 26% | Draw 28% | Levadiakos 46%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | Levadiakos 2.17. Levadiakos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Levadiakos as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Levadiakos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. This conflicts with form data: Volos NFC 50% | Levadiakos 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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