🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours PAOK (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as PAOK face Lamia.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Lamia travel to Stadio Toumbas to take on PAOK. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 February 2025, 18:00 UTC.

Form Guide

PAOK — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, PAOK have posted 3W 2D 5L at Stadio Toumbas — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Toumbas this season.

Across all Super League 1 games this season, Lamia have recorded 0W 1D 9L from 10 outings — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Lamia's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

On current form, PAOK have the edge — a 1.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

The fixture history tells a clear story: PAOK have dominated this rivalry, winning 8 of 9 past contests while Lamia have managed just 0 wins.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2024, ended 2–1 with PAOK winning.

The historical record gives PAOK a meaningful edge here — 8 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Data

PAOK trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Lamia trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 57% versus Lamia 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 67% | Lamia 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.43 xG and Lamia 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.091 / defence 1.074 | Lamia attack 0.671 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.187 / away 1.165. Data: 48 PAOK games / 48 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: PAOK 51% | Draw 27% | Lamia 22%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Lamia 4.55. PAOK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates PAOK as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAOK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 50% | Lamia 40% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights