Larisa 1-4 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Larisa take on Panetolikos.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
AEL FC Arena plays host to Larisa versus Panetolikos in Super League 1 (matchday 20). Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Larisa have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Larisa have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Panetolikos's record over their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Panetolikos's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Larisa's 1.20 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Panetolikos's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Panetolikos edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2025, ended Larisa 0–3 Panetolikos — a Panetolikos win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Larisa half-time and goal-timing data (last 19 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Panetolikos half-time and goal-timing data (last 19 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 11% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Larisa 47% versus Panetolikos 32%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Larisa 37% | Panetolikos 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Larisa 0.87 xG and Panetolikos 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Larisa attack 0.701 / defence 1.100 | Panetolikos attack 0.697 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.119. Larisa's attack rating of 0.701 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.87. Panetolikos's attack rating of 0.697 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.86. Data: built from Larisa's last 19 games and Panetolikos's last 45.
Result probabilities: Larisa 34% | Draw 34% | Panetolikos 33%. Fair-value odds: Larisa 2.98 | Draw 2.97 | Panetolikos 3.05. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS Yes probability 34% | Total xG 1.73. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.73 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Panetolikos's lower xG of 0.86 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.73 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 75% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Larisa's last 10 home games and Panetolikos's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Larisa 50% (last 10 home games) | Panetolikos 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Larisa vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 20 | Venue: AEL FC Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Larisa 34% | Draw 34% | Panetolikos 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% (Under 75%) | BTTS Yes 34% (No 66%) | xG Larisa 0.87 / Panetolikos 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Larisa attack 0.701 / def 1.100 | Panetolikos attack 0.697 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Larisa xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Panetolikos xG
34%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Larisa vs Panetolikos FAQs
What time does Larisa vs Panetolikos kick off?
Larisa vs Panetolikos kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 7 February 2026 at AEL FC Arena.
What was the final score in Larisa vs Panetolikos?
Larisa 1 - 4 Panetolikos.
Where is Larisa vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at AEL FC Arena.
What competition is Larisa vs Panetolikos part of?
Larisa vs Panetolikos is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 20) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Larisa vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives Larisa a 34% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 33% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Larisa vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Larisa and Panetolikos will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (66%).
Will Larisa vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (75%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Larisa's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Panetolikos's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.87. Flip it around — Panetolikos's attack (0.70x) against Larisa's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from Larisa's last 19 games and Panetolikos's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.98
34%
2.97
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Larisa xG
Total xG
1.73
0.86
Panetolikos xG
2.98
34%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.98
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
14%
7.02
14%
7.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.7 | 15.2 | 6.5 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Larisa vs Panetolikos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Larisa vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.4%.
How many goals are Larisa and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Larisa and 0.86 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 1.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Larisa vs Panetolikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Larisa's recent record stands at 4W 7D 8L from 19 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Panetolikos, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 12L across 19 games — 0.79 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Larisa against 0.79 for Panetolikos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Larisa have managed 2W 3D 4L from their last 9 home games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Panetolikos's away record stands at 2W 3D 4L across their last 9 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Larisa are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 0.79 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 19 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Larisa
Blended
Panetolikos
Blended
Larisa (Home) vs Panetolikos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Larisa
Blended
Panetolikos
Blended
❓ Larisa vs Panetolikos Form FAQs
What form are Larisa and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
Larisa have gone 4W 7D 8L in their last 19 games (1.00 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 4W 3D 12L in their last 19 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Larisa at home or Panetolikos away?
Larisa's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Larisa at home: 1.00 PPG; Panetolikos away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2025 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was on 12 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Panetolikos won Panetolikos 3-0 Larisa on 8 Nov 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Larisa have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Panetolikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Larisa
1
Draws
3
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Larisa vs Panetolikos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Larisa and Panetolikos?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Larisa have won 0, Panetolikos have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Larisa and Panetolikos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 May 2026: Panetolikos 1-1 Larisa.
Who has won more matches between Larisa and Panetolikos?
Panetolikos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Larisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Panetolikos see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 44% (Larisa) and 22% (Panetolikos) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Larisa and 11% for Panetolikos.
On the defensive side: Larisa keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Panetolikos in 33%; Larisa have failed to score in 33% of games; Panetolikos in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Larisa home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Larisa vs Panetolikos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Larisa and Panetolikos matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Larisa's recent matches and 22% of Panetolikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Larisa and Panetolikos matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Larisa's recent games and 11% of Panetolikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Larisa and Panetolikos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Larisa's recent matches and 56% of Panetolikos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Panetolikos run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Larisa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panetolikos beat Larisa 1-4 at AEL FC Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Larisa 0.87 xG and Panetolikos 0.86 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Panetolikos outscored their 0.86 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Larisa attack 0.70 / defence 1.10 against Panetolikos attack 0.70 / defence 0.90, drawn from 19/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Larisa 34% | Draw 34% | Panetolikos 33%, with Larisa to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Panetolikos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Larisa 37%, Panetolikos 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Larisa's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Panetolikos's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Larisa 1.00 PPG, Panetolikos 0.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panetolikos win broke the near-deadlock. Larisa (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Panetolikos (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.56 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.