🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Volos NFC at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Volos NFC vs Larisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Larisa travel to Panthessaliko Stadium to take on Volos NFC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 January 2026, 18:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Volos NFC's home record at Panthessaliko Stadium: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Across all Super League 1 games this season, Larisa have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Larisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Larisa's away record: 1W 3D 4L from 8 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Volos NFC 1.30 PPG, Larisa 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Volos NFC have won 1, Larisa 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 7.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 5–2 with Volos NFC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Volos NFC in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Larisa in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 44% versus Larisa 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 50% | Larisa 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.33 xG and Larisa 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.791 / defence 1.150 | Larisa attack 0.769 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.082. Volos NFC's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 1.33 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Larisa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.209 — this is suppressing Volos NFC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Volos NFC games / 18 Larisa games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Volos NFC 45% | Draw 28% | Larisa 27%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Larisa 3.70. Volos NFC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Volos NFC at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Volos NFC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Volos NFC 40% | Larisa 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights