Kifisia 1-0 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Levadiakos at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kifisia vs Levadiakos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kifisia host Levadiakos at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis in Super League 1 (matchday 23). Kick-off is Saturday 28 February 2026 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Kifisia — last 10 games: 1W 6D 3L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Kifisia have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Levadiakos stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Levadiakos have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Levadiakos — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Kifisia's games and 70% of Levadiakos's (from Kifisia's last 10 home games and Levadiakos's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Kifisia have won 0, Levadiakos 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 25 Aug 2025, ended Kifisia 2–3 Levadiakos — a Levadiakos win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Kifisia trading profile (last 21 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Levadiakos trading profile (last 21 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kifisia 71% and Levadiakos 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kifisia 57% | Levadiakos 67%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Kifisia surrender their half-time lead 60% of the time, while Levadiakos have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 62% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kifisia 1.42 xG and Levadiakos 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kifisia attack 0.827 / defence 1.188 | Levadiakos attack 1.247 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.111. Levadiakos's defence rating of 1.238 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Kifisia's projected output up. Levadiakos have an above-average attack rating of 1.247, which lifts their away xG to 1.65. Data: built from Kifisia's last 21 games and Levadiakos's last 48.
Result probabilities: Kifisia 32% | Draw 26% | Levadiakos 42%. Fair-value odds: Kifisia 3.10 | Draw 3.92 | Levadiakos 2.37. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.42 / 1.65) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Levadiakos as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Levadiakos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Kifisia's last 10 home games and Levadiakos's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kifisia 60% (last 10 home games) | Levadiakos 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kifisia vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 23 | Venue: Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis • Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kifisia 32% | Draw 26% | Levadiakos 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Kifisia 1.42 / Levadiakos 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Kifisia attack 0.827 / def 1.188 | Levadiakos attack 1.247 / def 1.238 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Levadiakos (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Kifisia xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Levadiakos xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kifisia vs Levadiakos FAQs
What time does Kifisia vs Levadiakos kick off?
Kifisia vs Levadiakos kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis.
What was the final score in Kifisia vs Levadiakos?
Kifisia 1 - 0 Levadiakos.
Where is Kifisia vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis.
What competition is Kifisia vs Levadiakos part of?
Kifisia vs Levadiakos is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 23) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Kifisia vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Kifisia a 32% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Levadiakos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kifisia vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Kifisia and Levadiakos will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Kifisia vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Kifisia's attack rating (0.83) and Levadiakos's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Levadiakos's attack versus Kifisia's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Kifisia's last 21 games and Levadiakos's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Levadiakos Win
32%
3.10
26%
3.92
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Kifisia xG
Total xG
3.06
1.65
Levadiakos xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
19%
5.18
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
6%
16.07
10%
9.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.7 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.9 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.7 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kifisia vs Levadiakos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kifisia vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Kifisia and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Kifisia and 1.65 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Kifisia vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kifisia's recent record stands at 4W 9D 8L from 21 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-D in the last five.
Levadiakos, meanwhile, have gone 10W 6D 5L across 21 games — 1.71 PPG, with D-W-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Levadiakos by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kifisia heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Kifisia have managed 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Levadiakos's away record stands at 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 away games, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Levadiakos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kifisia are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 2.19 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kifisia have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Levadiakos in 62%.
Last 21 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kifisia
Blended
Levadiakos
Blended
Kifisia (Home) vs Levadiakos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kifisia
Blended
Levadiakos
Blended
❓ Kifisia vs Levadiakos Form FAQs
What form are Kifisia and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Kifisia have gone 4W 9D 8L in their last 21 games (1.00 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 10W 6D 5L in their last 21 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kifisia at home or Levadiakos away?
Levadiakos's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kifisia at home: 1.00 PPG; Levadiakos away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 3 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from August 2025. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Kifisia's record when hosting Levadiakos specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Kifisia
1
Draws
1
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Kifisia vs Levadiakos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kifisia and Levadiakos?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Kifisia have won 1, Levadiakos have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Kifisia and Levadiakos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: Kifisia 0-0 Levadiakos.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kifisia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Kifisia at 60%, Levadiakos at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Kifisia and 70% for Levadiakos. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kifisia have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kifisia home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kifisia vs Levadiakos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kifisia and Levadiakos matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Kifisia's games and 70% of Levadiakos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Kifisia and Levadiakos matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Kifisia's matches and 70% of Levadiakos's.
Do Kifisia and Levadiakos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Kifisia's recent matches and 90% of Levadiakos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kifisia defy the odds to beat Levadiakos 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kifisia beat Levadiakos 1-0 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kifisia 1.42 xG and Levadiakos 1.65 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Levadiakos landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kifisia attack 0.83 / defence 1.19 against Levadiakos attack 1.25 / defence 1.24, drawn from 21/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kifisia 32% | Draw 26% | Levadiakos 42%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Kifisia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kifisia 57%, Levadiakos 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kifisia's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Levadiakos's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Levadiakos arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Kifisia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kifisia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Levadiakos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.