Kalamata vs PAOK – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates PAOK at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kalamata vs PAOK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kalamata host PAOK at Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Kalamata have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 outings — a 0.00 PPG return. Last five: L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Kalamata have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, PAOK stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. PAOK have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAOK away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour PAOK — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalamata 1.28 xG and PAOK 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalamata attack 0.957 / defence 1.392 | PAOK attack 1.187 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 0.997. Data: 2 Kalamata games / 28 PAOK games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Kalamata 28% | Draw 28% | PAOK 44%. Fair-value odds: Kalamata 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | PAOK 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.28 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAOK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalamata vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalamata 28% | Draw 28% | PAOK 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Kalamata 1.28 / PAOK 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Kalamata attack 0.957 / def 1.392 | PAOK attack 1.187 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.474 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: PAOK (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Kalamata xG
Expected Goals
1.65
PAOK xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalamata vs PAOK kick off?
Kalamata vs PAOK is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium.
Where is Kalamata vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium.
What competition is Kalamata vs PAOK part of?
Kalamata vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Kalamata vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Kalamata a 28% chance of winning, PAOK a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalamata vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Kalamata and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Kalamata vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalamata and PAOK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kalamata and PAOK in?
Kalamata (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L. PAOK (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Kalamata's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against PAOK's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, PAOK's attack versus Kalamata's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
28%
3.58
28%
3.60
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Kalamata xG
Total xG
2.93
1.65
PAOK xG
3.58
28%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
19%
5.20
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
5%
18.60
12%
8.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.8 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.3 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalamata vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Kalamata and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Kalamata and 1.65 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalamata vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kalamata come into this having played 2 games, going 0W 0D 2L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L. It's still early in the season for Kalamata, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, PAOK sit at 3.00 PPG from 2 outings (2W 0D 0L), a run that reads W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for PAOK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PAOK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 3.00 PPG clear of Kalamata — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Kalamata are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 3.00 scored and 0.50 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalamata
Early Season
PAOK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalamata and PAOK in coming into this match?
Kalamata have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while PAOK have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
Have Kalamata or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalamata have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, PAOK in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalamata home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalamata play PAOK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Kalamata's recent matches and 50% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kalamata vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Kalamata's matches and 100% of PAOK's.
Do Kalamata and PAOK tend to score early?
Kalamata have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, PAOK in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.