Levadiakos vs Kalamata – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Levadiakos at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levadiakos vs Kalamata encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Levadiakos host Kalamata at Levadia Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 January 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Levadiakos stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Levadiakos have posted 6W 2D 2L at Levadia Stadium — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Levadiakos are significantly better at Levadia Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Kalamata — All Games: 0W 0D 2L from 2 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Kalamata have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Levadiakos are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 1.30 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.53 xG and Kalamata 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.894 / defence 1.137 | Kalamata attack 0.718 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 0.997. Data: 28 Levadiakos games / 2 Kalamata games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 52% | Draw 30% | Kalamata 18%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 1.92 | Draw 3.33 | Kalamata 5.56. Levadiakos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Levadiakos as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Levadiakos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.4 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Kalamata | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Levadia Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 52% | Draw 30% | Kalamata 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Levadiakos 1.53 / Kalamata 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.894 / def 1.137 | Kalamata attack 0.718 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.474 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Levadiakos (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Kalamata xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs Kalamata kick off?
Levadiakos vs Kalamata is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 30 January 2027 at Levadia Stadium.
Where is Levadiakos vs Kalamata being played?
The match is being played at Levadia Stadium.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Kalamata part of?
Levadiakos vs Kalamata is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Kalamata?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 52% chance of winning, Kalamata a 18% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Levadiakos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Kalamata?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Levadiakos and Kalamata will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs Kalamata have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Kalamata?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Levadiakos and Kalamata in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Kalamata (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Levadiakos's attack rating (0.89) and Kalamata's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kalamata's attack versus Levadiakos's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (28/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levadiakos Win
52%
1.91
30%
3.37
18%
5.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.34
0.81
Kalamata xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
5.55
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
23%
4.31
4%
25.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 11.9 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Kalamata?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Kalamata expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Levadiakos and 0.81 for Kalamata, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Kalamata?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Levadiakos's recent record stands at 0W 0D 2L from 2 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kalamata, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 2L across 2 games — 0.00 PPG, with L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Kalamata, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Levadiakos on 0.00 PPG, Kalamata on 0.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Levadiakos are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Kalamata are on 1.00 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Levadiakos have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Last 2 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Early Season
Kalamata
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and Kalamata in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Kalamata have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 (0.00 PPG).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Kalamata away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play Kalamata?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 50% of Kalamata's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs Kalamata usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Levadiakos's recent games and 50% of Kalamata's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levadiakos and Kalamata tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Kalamata in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.