Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Asteras Tripolis at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis meet at Levadia Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 December 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Levadiakos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Levadiakos at Levadia Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Asteras Tripolis have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Asteras Tripolis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Asteras Tripolis have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Asteras Tripolis arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Levadiakos, 1 for Asteras Tripolis and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2026, ended 3–1 with Levadiakos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Levadiakos — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Asteras Tripolis — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 46% versus Asteras Tripolis 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 56% | Asteras Tripolis 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 0.90 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.589 / defence 1.076 | Asteras Tripolis attack 1.164 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 0.976. Levadiakos's attack strength of 0.589 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 33 Levadiakos games / 32 Asteras Tripolis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 24% | Draw 35% | Asteras Tripolis 40%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 4.17 | Draw 2.86 | Asteras Tripolis 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Asteras Tripolis are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Asteras Tripolis if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Levadiakos 40% | Asteras Tripolis 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Levadia Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Dec 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 24% | Draw 35% | Asteras Tripolis 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Levadiakos 0.90 / Asteras Tripolis 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.589 / def 1.076 | Asteras Tripolis attack 1.164 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.439 / away 0.976 • Poisson stance: Asteras Tripolis (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Asteras Tripolis xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Saturday 12 December 2026 at Levadia Stadium.
Where is Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Levadia Stadium.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 24% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 40% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Asteras Tripolis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis?
Record (7 meetings): Levadiakos 2W | Draws 4 | Asteras Tripolis 1W.
What form are Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Levadiakos's attack rating (0.59) and Asteras Tripolis's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Asteras Tripolis's attack (1.16x) against Levadiakos's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 33/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Asteras Tripolis Win
24%
4.15
35%
2.82
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.12
1.22
Asteras Tripolis xG
4.15
24%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
7%
14.09
16%
6.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 14.6 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.22 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Levadiakos come into this having played 39 games, going 15W 9D 15L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Asteras Tripolis sit at 1.10 PPG from 39 outings (10W 13D 16L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Levadiakos against 1.10 for Asteras Tripolis. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Levadiakos's home form reads 9W 4D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.63 PPG return.
Away from home, Asteras Tripolis have taken 0.84 points per game from 19 outings (3W 7D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Levadiakos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Levadiakos are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 1.08 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Early Season
Asteras Tripolis
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 15W 9D 15L in their last 39 games (1.38 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 10W 13D 16L in their last 39 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
Levadiakos's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.63 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levadiakos have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Asteras Tripolis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Levadiakos
4
Draws
1
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis?
From 7 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 2, Asteras Tripolis have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Levadiakos 3-1 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 47%, Asteras Tripolis 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Levadiakos) and 47% (Asteras Tripolis).
On the defensive side: Levadiakos keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Asteras Tripolis in 32%; Levadiakos have failed to score in 32% of games; Asteras Tripolis in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play Asteras Tripolis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 53% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Levadiakos's recent games and 47% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Asteras Tripolis in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.