Asteras Tripolis 0-3 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (45%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Asteras Tripolis face Olympiakos Piraeus.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium plays host to Asteras Tripolis versus Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1 (matchday 17). Kick-off: Wednesday 4 February 2026 at 16:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Asteras Tripolis have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Asteras Tripolis's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 7W 3D 0L across their last 10 — 2.40 points per game. Last five: D D W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Olympiakos Piraeus are 1.40 PPG clear of Asteras Tripolis over their recent games (2.40 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head sample leans to Olympiakos Piraeus, who have 5 wins from 8 H2H matches compared to 1 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Aug 2025, ended Asteras Tripolis 0–2 Olympiakos Piraeus — a Olympiakos Piraeus win.
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading
Asteras Tripolis half-time and goal-timing data (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Asteras Tripolis 48% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Asteras Tripolis 46% | Olympiakos Piraeus 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 0.85 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.910 / defence 1.013 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.119 / defence 0.663. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.096. Olympiakos Piraeus bring a tight defence (rating 0.663, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Asteras Tripolis's projected output down. Data: built from Asteras Tripolis's last 44 games and Olympiakos Piraeus's last 44.
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 25% | Draw 29% | Olympiakos Piraeus 45%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 3.96 | Draw 3.42 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.20. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 65% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Asteras Tripolis 70% (last 10 home games) | Olympiakos Piraeus 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 17 | Venue: Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 4 February 2026 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 25% | Draw 29% | Olympiakos Piraeus 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Asteras Tripolis 0.85 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.910 / def 1.013 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.119 / def 0.663 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus FAQs
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Wednesday 4 February 2026 at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium.
What was the final score in Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Asteras Tripolis 0 - 3 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 17) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 25% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Asteras Tripolis's attack at 0.91x the league average against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence at 0.66x — combine the two and it projects 0.85 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.12x) against Asteras Tripolis's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from Asteras Tripolis's last 44 games and Olympiakos Piraeus's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
25%
3.96
29%
3.42
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
2.09
1.24
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
3.96
25%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
7%
13.71
19%
5.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 15.4 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 1.24 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 50 outings, Asteras Tripolis have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 15W 12D 23L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 36W 10D 4L from 50 games, 2.36 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Olympiakos Piraeus are the form team by 1.22 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Asteras Tripolis.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Asteras Tripolis have posted 1.25 PPG from their last 24 home games (8W 6D 10L).
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 15W 5D 4L from their last 24 away games — 2.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.86 scored and 0.62 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 54% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
Asteras Tripolis (Home) vs Olympiakos Piraeus (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus Form FAQs
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 15W 12D 23L in their last 50 games (1.14 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 36W 10D 4L in their last 50 (2.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Asteras Tripolis at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Asteras Tripolis at home: 1.25 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 2.08 PPG.
Have Asteras Tripolis or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 54%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus, the earliest from March 2022. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won Olympiakos Piraeus 5-0 Asteras Tripolis on 28 Dec 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Asteras Tripolis have gone 1W 1D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Asteras Tripolis
2
Draws
7
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Asteras Tripolis have won 1, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Asteras Tripolis 0-1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Olympiakos Piraeus see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Asteras Tripolis 50%, Olympiakos Piraeus 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Asteras Tripolis) and 33% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 38% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Asteras Tripolis's recent games and 33% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 54% of Olympiakos Piraeus's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Olympiakos Piraeus run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Asteras Tripolis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Asteras Tripolis 0-3 at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 0.85 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.24 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Asteras Tripolis fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Olympiakos Piraeus outscored their 1.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.91 / defence 1.01 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.12 / defence 0.66, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 25% | Draw 29% | Olympiakos Piraeus 45%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 46%, Olympiakos Piraeus 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.