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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model favours PAOK (75%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as PAOK face OFI.

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Match Analysis

PAOK host OFI at Toumba Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 January 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form Guide

PAOK — All Games: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, PAOK have posted 9W 1D 0L at Toumba Stadium — 2.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Toumba Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have recorded 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.

OFI away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.

PAOK are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 1.50 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H Record

The fixture history tells a clear story: PAOK have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 9 past contests while OFI have managed just 2 wins.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with PAOK winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both PAOK and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Patterns

PAOK in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

OFI in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 53% versus OFI 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 66% | OFI 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 2.40 xG and OFI 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.273 / defence 0.692 | OFI attack 0.898 / defence 1.317. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.102. PAOK carry an above-average attack strength of 1.273 — their λ of 2.40 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. OFI bring a strong defensive rating of 1.317 — this is suppressing PAOK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. PAOK's defence rating of 0.692 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 PAOK games / 41 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: PAOK 75% | Draw 16% | OFI 9%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 1.33 | Draw 6.25 | OFI 11.11. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (75%) — a 66pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is PAOK at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 30% | OFI 40% BTTS from recent games.

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