Aris Thessalonikis 2-1 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus encounter.

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Analysis

Olympiakos Piraeus make the trip to Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis to face Aris Thessalonikis in Super League 1 (matchday 5). The match kicks off on Saturday 21 September 2024 at 19:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Aris Thessalonikis have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Aris Thessalonikis's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 — 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Olympiakos Piraeus's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.

On a straight form reading, Olympiakos Piraeus are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Aris Thessalonikis, 3 for Olympiakos Piraeus and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 24 Apr 2024, ended Aris Thessalonikis 1–1 Olympiakos Piraeus — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Aris Thessalonikis half-time and goal-timing data (last 40 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (last 40 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 48% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 42% | Olympiakos Piraeus 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 0.96 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.056 / defence 0.960 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.204 / defence 0.781. League average goals — home 1.161 / away 1.297. Olympiakos Piraeus bring a tight defence (rating 0.781, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Aris Thessalonikis's projected output down. Olympiakos Piraeus have an above-average attack rating of 1.204, which lifts their away xG to 1.50. Data: built from Aris Thessalonikis's last 30 games and Olympiakos Piraeus's last 30.

Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 21% | Draw 32% | Olympiakos Piraeus 47%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 4.68 | Draw 3.16 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.13. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Aris Thessalonikis's last 10 home games and Olympiakos Piraeus's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 6 H2H matches point the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Aris Thessalonikis 80% (last 10 home games) | Olympiakos Piraeus 50% (last 10 away games).

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