Atromitos 4-2 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamia at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atromitos vs Lamia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Peristeriou plays host to Atromitos versus Lamia in Super League 1, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 22 September 2024 at 18:30 UTC.
Form
Atromitos (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Atromitos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Peristeriou, Atromitos have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lamia's overall Super League 1 record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Lamia have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Lamia have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Atromitos, 0.60 for Lamia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Atromitos have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Lamia in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Atromitos, 1 for Lamia and 5 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2024, ended 3–1 with Atromitos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Atromitos — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Lamia — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Atromitos 62% and Lamia 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 49% | Lamia 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.02 xG and Lamia 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.967 / defence 1.011 | Lamia attack 1.019 / defence 0.860. League average goals — home 1.222 / away 1.268. Data: 30 Atromitos games / 30 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atromitos 25% | Draw 36% | Lamia 39%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 4.00 | Draw 2.78 | Lamia 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lamia as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lamia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Atromitos 60% | Lamia 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 25% | Draw 36% | Lamia 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 50% | xG Atromitos 1.02 / Lamia 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 0.967 / def 1.011 | Lamia attack 1.019 / def 0.860 | league avg home 1.222 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Lamia (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Lamia xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs Lamia kick off?
Atromitos vs Lamia kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs Lamia?
Atromitos 4 - 2 Lamia.
Where is Atromitos vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs Lamia part of?
Atromitos vs Lamia is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 25% chance of winning, Lamia a 39% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Lamia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Atromitos and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Lamia?
Record (8 meetings): Atromitos 2W | Draws 5 | Lamia 1W.
What form are Atromitos and Lamia in?
Atromitos (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Lamia (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Atromitos's attack at 0.97x the league average against Lamia's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lamia's attack (1.02x) against Atromitos's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamia Win
25%
3.99
36%
2.81
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.32
1.31
Lamia xG
3.99
25%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
7%
14.72
14%
7.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Atromitos and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Atromitos and 1.31 for Lamia, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 37 outings, Atromitos have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 8W 15D 14L record — L-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Atromitos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lamia's form line: 9W 9D 19L from 37 games, 0.97 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Lamia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Atromitos against 0.97 for Lamia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Atromitos have posted 1.22 PPG from 18 outings (5W 7D 6L).
On the road, Lamia have gone 4W 5D 9L from 18 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Atromitos are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 1.14 scored and 2.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Atromitos have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Lamia in 62%.
Last 37 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Early Season
Lamia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and Lamia in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 8W 15D 14L in their last 37 games (1.05 PPG), while Lamia have gone 9W 9D 19L in their last 37 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or Lamia away?
Atromitos's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.22 PPG; Lamia away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Atromitos go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atromitos won 0-3 on 12 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atromitos have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lamia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Atromitos
5
Draws
1
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Lamia?
From 10 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 4, Lamia have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2025, when Lamia 0-3 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and Lamia?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 61%, Lamia 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Atromitos) and 67% (Lamia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atromitos have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play Lamia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Atromitos's games and 67% of Lamia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atromitos vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Atromitos's matches and 67% of Lamia's.
Do Atromitos and Lamia tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Lamia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atromitos cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos beat Lamia 4-2 at Stadio Peristeriou, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.02 xG and Lamia 1.31 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Atromitos beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.97 / defence 1.01 against Lamia attack 1.02 / defence 0.86, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 25% | Draw 36% | Lamia 39%, with Lamia to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a Atromitos win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 49%, Lamia 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Lamia's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atromitos 1.05 PPG, Lamia 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atromitos win broke the near-deadlock. Atromitos (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm. Lamia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.