Volos NFC 1-4 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PAOK (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Volos NFC face PAOK.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 5 as Volos NFC welcome PAOK to Panthessaliko Stadio. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 September 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Volos NFC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Volos NFC have posted 3W 2D 5L at Panthessaliko Stadio — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
PAOK — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. PAOK have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAOK's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. PAOK are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, PAOK have the better historical record — 6 wins from 6 previous contests against 0 for Volos NFC.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Jan 2024, ended 1–5 with PAOK winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. PAOK have won 6 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Volos NFC trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
PAOK trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 54% versus PAOK 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 57% | PAOK 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 0.97 xG and PAOK 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.882 / defence 1.267 | PAOK attack 1.198 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.161 / away 1.243. Data: 30 Volos NFC games / 30 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 17% | Draw 27% | PAOK 56%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 5.88 | Draw 3.70 | PAOK 1.79. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAOK at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Volos NFC 80% | PAOK 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 17% | Draw 27% | PAOK 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Volos NFC 0.97 / PAOK 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.882 / def 1.267 | PAOK attack 1.198 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.161 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: PAOK (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.89
PAOK xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs PAOK kick off?
Volos NFC vs PAOK kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs PAOK?
Volos NFC 1 - 4 PAOK.
Where is Volos NFC vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs PAOK part of?
Volos NFC vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 17% chance of winning, PAOK a 56% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Volos NFC and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and PAOK?
Record (6 meetings): Volos NFC 0W | Draws 0 | PAOK 6W.
What form are Volos NFC and PAOK in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. PAOK (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Volos NFC's attack at 0.88x the league average against PAOK's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PAOK's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 1.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.2%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
17%
6.00
27%
3.70
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
2.86
1.89
PAOK xG
6.00
17%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
15%
6.59
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
3%
39.57
21%
4.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 10.8 | 10.2 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.89 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs PAOK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Volos NFC's recent record stands at 9W 9D 19L from 37 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Volos NFC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PAOK, meanwhile, have gone 26W 6D 5L across 37 games — 2.27 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for PAOK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours PAOK by 1.30 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Volos NFC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Volos NFC have managed 5W 4D 9L from 18 games — 1.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAOK's away record stands at 12W 3D 3L across 18 trips, a 2.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Volos NFC are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 2.41 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Early Season
PAOK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and PAOK in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 9W 9D 19L in their last 37 games (0.97 PPG), while PAOK have gone 26W 6D 5L in their last 37 (2.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 1.06 PPG; PAOK away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Volos NFC or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Volos NFC have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, PAOK in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Volos NFC and PAOK runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Jan 2024, when PAOK won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Volos NFC's record when hosting PAOK specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Volos NFC
0
Draws
8
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 2, PAOK have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Volos NFC 2-1 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Volos NFC at 72%, PAOK at 72%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Volos NFC and 72% for PAOK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play PAOK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Volos NFC's games and 72% of PAOK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Volos NFC vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Volos NFC's matches and 72% of PAOK's.
Do Volos NFC and PAOK tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, PAOK in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PAOK run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Volos NFC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Volos NFC 1-4 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 0.97 xG and PAOK 1.89 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. PAOK outscored their 1.89 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.88 / defence 1.27 against PAOK attack 1.20 / defence 0.95, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 17% | Draw 27% | PAOK 56%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 57%, PAOK 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
PAOK's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Volos NFC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.