OFI 3-2 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 4 as OFI welcome Aris Thessalonikis to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 September 2024 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
OFI — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. OFI have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
OFI at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Aris Thessalonikis stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Aris Thessalonikis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (OFI) versus 1.20 (Aris Thessalonikis). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for OFI, 1 for Aris Thessalonikis and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Dec 2023, ended 0–1 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
OFI in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Aris Thessalonikis in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 53% versus Aris Thessalonikis 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 53% | Aris Thessalonikis 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 0.98 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.020 / defence 0.951 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.918 / defence 0.848. League average goals — home 1.133 / away 1.283. Data: 29 OFI games / 29 Aris Thessalonikis games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: OFI 29% | Draw 35% | Aris Thessalonikis 36%. Fair-value odds: OFI 3.45 | Draw 2.86 | Aris Thessalonikis 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: OFI 60% | Aris Thessalonikis 20% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (29 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 29% | Draw 35% | Aris Thessalonikis 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 45% | xG OFI 0.98 / Aris Thessalonikis 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.020 / def 0.951 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.918 / def 0.848 | league avg home 1.133 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Aris Thessalonikis xG
45%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
OFI 3 - 2 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 29% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 36% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both OFI and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (2 meetings): OFI 1W | Draws 0 | Aris Thessalonikis 1W.
What form are OFI and Aris Thessalonikis in?
OFI (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from OFI's attack rating (1.02) and Aris Thessalonikis's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Aris Thessalonikis's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (29/29 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
29%
3.44
35%
2.88
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
OFI xG
Total xG
2.10
1.12
Aris Thessalonikis xG
3.44
29%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.25
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
9%
10.56
14%
7.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 13.7 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are OFI and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for OFI and 1.12 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 36 outings, OFI have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 8W 15D 13L record — D-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for OFI, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 16W 9D 11L from 36 games, 1.58 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Aris Thessalonikis are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against OFI.
Venue Form
On home soil, OFI have posted 1.56 PPG from 18 outings (7W 7D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — OFI are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 8W 4D 6L from 18 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
OFI are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.36 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Early Season
Aris Thessalonikis
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 8W 15D 13L in their last 36 games (1.08 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 16W 9D 11L in their last 36 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
OFI's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.56 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.56 PPG.
Have OFI or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Aris Thessalonikis have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Oct 2025, when OFI won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OFI's record when hosting Aris Thessalonikis specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
OFI
1
Draws
4
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 5, Aris Thessalonikis have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 3-1 OFI.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Aris Thessalonikis?
OFI have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 56%, Aris Thessalonikis 28% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 39% for OFI and 28% for Aris Thessalonikis.
On the defensive side: OFI keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis in 50%; Aris Thessalonikis in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of OFI's recent matches and 28% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of OFI's recent games and 28% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as OFI defy the odds to beat Aris Thessalonikis 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI beat Aris Thessalonikis 3-2 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 0.98 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.12 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. OFI beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Aris Thessalonikis outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.02 / defence 0.95 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.92 / defence 0.85, drawn from 29/29 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it OFI 29% | Draw 35% | Aris Thessalonikis 36%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual OFI win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 53%, Aris Thessalonikis 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with OFI winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. OFI (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.