Olympiakos Piraeus 0-0 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus and Panetolikos meet at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki in Super League 1, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 15 September 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Olympiakos Piraeus have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Olympiakos Piraeus have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form when playing at home: 9W 0D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki this term (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Panetolikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Panetolikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Panetolikos away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.30 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Olympiakos Piraeus have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Panetolikos in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Olympiakos Piraeus have had the better of this match-up — 6 wins from 6 meetings, with Panetolikos managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2024, ended 2–1 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Olympiakos Piraeus and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Olympiakos Piraeus — key trading statistics (36 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Panetolikos — key trading statistics (36 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 56% versus Panetolikos 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 64% | Panetolikos 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.59 xG and Panetolikos 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.230 / defence 0.994 | Panetolikos attack 0.828 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.181 / away 1.322. Data: 29 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 29 Panetolikos games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 48% | Draw 27% | Panetolikos 25%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Panetolikos 4.00. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 60% | Panetolikos 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (29 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 48% | Draw 27% | Panetolikos 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.59 / Panetolikos 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.230 / def 0.994 | Panetolikos attack 0.828 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.181 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Panetolikos xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos?
Olympiakos Piraeus 0 - 0 Panetolikos.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 48% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Panetolikos will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Panetolikos?
Record (6 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 6W | Draws 0 | Panetolikos 0W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Panetolikos in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Panetolikos (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Olympiakos Piraeus's attack rating (1.23) and Panetolikos's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Panetolikos's attack (0.83x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
The sample (29/29 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
48%
2.09
27%
3.67
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.68
1.09
Panetolikos xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
16%
6.19
5%
19.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.9 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 1.09 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Olympiakos Piraeus's recent record stands at 23W 6D 7L from 36 games, a 2.08 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Panetolikos, meanwhile, have gone 10W 9D 17L across 36 games — 1.08 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Panetolikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Olympiakos Piraeus by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Panetolikos heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Olympiakos Piraeus have managed 12W 1D 3L from 16 games — 2.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Panetolikos's away record stands at 3W 5D 8L across 16 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 1.08 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Early Season
Panetolikos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 23W 6D 7L in their last 36 games (2.08 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 10W 9D 17L in their last 36 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Panetolikos away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.31 PPG; Panetolikos away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Panetolikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Panetolikos in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 6-1 on 13 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Panetolikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Olympiakos Piraeus
1
Draws
0
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Panetolikos?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 9, Panetolikos have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Panetolikos last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 2-0 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Panetolikos?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 69%, Panetolikos 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 88% for Olympiakos Piraeus and 50% for Panetolikos. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Panetolikos in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Panetolikos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Olympiakos Piraeus's games and 56% of Panetolikos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 88% of Olympiakos Piraeus's matches and 50% of Panetolikos's.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Panetolikos tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Panetolikos in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Olympiakos Piraeus's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Regular Season - 4, as Olympiakos Piraeus and Panetolikos drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.59 xG and Panetolikos 1.09 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Panetolikos landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.23 / defence 0.99 against Panetolikos attack 0.83 / defence 1.10, drawn from 29/29 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 48% | Draw 27% | Panetolikos 25%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 64%, Panetolikos 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (36 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Panetolikos's trading profile (36 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.56 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.