Werder Bremen 2-0 1. FC Heidenheim – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Werder Bremen face 1. FC Heidenheim.

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Full Analysis

Weserstadion plays host to Werder Bremen versus 1. FC Heidenheim in Bundesliga (matchday 24). Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 14:30 UK time.

Form

Werder Bremen (all games): 0W 3D 7L across their last 10 — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Werder Bremen's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Werder Bremen are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

1. FC Heidenheim have collected 0.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

1. FC Heidenheim's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 road games (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.30 PPG for Werder Bremen against 0.30 for 1. FC Heidenheim. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, 1. FC Heidenheim edge it 3 wins to 2, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.3 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2025, ended Werder Bremen 2–2 1. FC Heidenheim — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Werder Bremen — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

1. FC Heidenheim — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Werder Bremen 49% versus 1. FC Heidenheim 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 61% | 1. FC Heidenheim 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.35 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.700 / defence 1.184 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.825 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.726 / away 1.391. Werder Bremen's attack rating of 0.700 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.35. Data: built from Werder Bremen's last 57 games and 1. FC Heidenheim's last 57.

Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 36% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Heidenheim 36%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 2.81 | Draw 3.54 | 1. FC Heidenheim 2.77. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 36% to win, with the draw at 28%. There is no result lean here.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Werder Bremen 36% and 1. FC Heidenheim 36%, with the draw at 28%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Werder Bremen's last 10 home games and 1. FC Heidenheim's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Werder Bremen 40% (last 10 home games) | 1. FC Heidenheim 70% (last 10 away games).

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