Werder Bremen 0-2 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Borussia Dortmund (54%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Werder Bremen face Borussia Dortmund.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

Werder Bremen welcome Borussia Dortmund to Weserstadion in Bundesliga (matchday 34). Kick-off is Saturday 16 May 2026 at 15:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Werder Bremen have gone 4W 1D 5L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Werder Bremen's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Borussia Dortmund — last 10 games: 6W 0D 4L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Borussia Dortmund's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. Borussia Dortmund's 1.80 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Werder Bremen's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H Record

Borussia Dortmund have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the 8 H2H matches we hold against 1 for Werder Bremen.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.9 per game across the 8 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 13 Jan 2026, ended Werder Bremen 0–3 Borussia Dortmund — a Borussia Dortmund win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Borussia Dortmund have won 5 of 8 H2H matches, and at 2.9 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

In-Play Profile

Werder Bremen in-play tendencies (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

Borussia Dortmund in-play tendencies (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Werder Bremen 51% versus Borussia Dortmund 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 60% | Borussia Dortmund 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.08 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.796 / defence 1.157 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.047 / defence 0.788. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.492. Werder Bremen's attack rating of 0.796 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.08. Borussia Dortmund bring a tight defence (rating 0.788, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Werder Bremen's projected output down. Data: built from Werder Bremen's last 67 games and Borussia Dortmund's last 67.

Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 23% | Draw 23% | Borussia Dortmund 54%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 4.44 | Draw 4.34 | Borussia Dortmund 1.84. Borussia Dortmund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Werder Bremen's last 10 home games and Borussia Dortmund's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Werder Bremen 50% (last 10 home games) | Borussia Dortmund 70% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights