VfL Wolfsburg 1-2 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Borussia Dortmund (57%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as VfL Wolfsburg face Borussia Dortmund.

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Analysis

Borussia Dortmund make the trip to Volkswagen Arena to face VfL Wolfsburg in Bundesliga (matchday 21). The match kicks off on Saturday 7 February 2026 at 14:30 UK time.

Form

VfL Wolfsburg (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters, VfL Wolfsburg have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Borussia Dortmund have collected 2.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Borussia Dortmund have posted 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Borussia Dortmund are 1.30 PPG clear of VfL Wolfsburg over their recent games (2.40 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from VfL Wolfsburg's last 10 home games and Borussia Dortmund's last 10 away games) — VfL Wolfsburg have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Borussia Dortmund in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Across the 9 H2H matches in our data, Borussia Dortmund have the stronger record — 7 wins to VfL Wolfsburg's 1, with 1 draw.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2025, ended VfL Wolfsburg 0–1 Borussia Dortmund — a Borussia Dortmund win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Borussia Dortmund have won 7 of 9 H2H matches, and at 3.4 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading Data

VfL Wolfsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

Borussia Dortmund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfL Wolfsburg 70% and Borussia Dortmund 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Wolfsburg 61% | Borussia Dortmund 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Wolfsburg 1.36 xG and Borussia Dortmund 2.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.015 / defence 1.258 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.226 / defence 0.818. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.461. Borussia Dortmund have an above-average attack rating of 1.226, which lifts their away xG to 2.25. VfL Wolfsburg's defence rating of 1.258 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Borussia Dortmund's projected output up. Data: built from VfL Wolfsburg's last 54 games and Borussia Dortmund's last 54.

Result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 21% | Draw 22% | Borussia Dortmund 57%. Fair-value odds: VfL Wolfsburg 4.71 | Draw 4.50 | Borussia Dortmund 1.77. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Dortmund (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.61. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.61 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (1.36 / 2.25) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.61 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (VfL Wolfsburg's last 10 home games and Borussia Dortmund's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: VfL Wolfsburg 80% (last 10 home games) | Borussia Dortmund 60% (last 10 away games).

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