SV Darmstadt 98 2-2 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Darmstadt 98 vs Eintracht Frankfurt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Eintracht Frankfurt make the trip to Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor to face SV Darmstadt 98 in Bundesliga (matchday 18). The match kicks off on Saturday 20 January 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Current Form
SV Darmstadt 98's record over their last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — SV Darmstadt 98 are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Eintracht Frankfurt (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Eintracht Frankfurt are 1.40 PPG clear of SV Darmstadt 98 over their recent games (1.70 vs 0.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Eintracht Frankfurt edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 20 Aug 2023, ended SV Darmstadt 98 0–1 Eintracht Frankfurt — a Eintracht Frankfurt win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
SV Darmstadt 98 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 51 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Eintracht Frankfurt goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 51 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Darmstadt 98 53% versus Eintracht Frankfurt 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 55% | Eintracht Frankfurt 59%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: SV Darmstadt 98 surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Eintracht Frankfurt have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 0.86 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.570 / defence 1.399 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.006 / defence 0.833. League average goals — home 1.808 / away 1.268. SV Darmstadt 98's attack rating of 0.570 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.86. SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating of 1.399 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Eintracht Frankfurt's projected output up. Data: built from SV Darmstadt 98's last 17 games and Eintracht Frankfurt's last 51.
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 16% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Frankfurt 57%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 6.30 | Draw 3.75 | Eintracht Frankfurt 1.74. The model has a clear lean to Eintracht Frankfurt (57%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Eintracht Frankfurt are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — low conviction — though recent form (SV Darmstadt 98's last 10 home games and Eintracht Frankfurt's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: SV Darmstadt 98 50% (last 10 home games) | Eintracht Frankfurt 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 18 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Saturday 20 January 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 16% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Frankfurt 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG SV Darmstadt 98 0.86 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.570 / def 1.399 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.006 / def 0.833 | league avg home 1.808 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs Eintracht Frankfurt FAQs
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 20 January 2024 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
SV Darmstadt 98 2 - 2 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 18) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 16% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 57% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and Eintracht Frankfurt will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SV Darmstadt 98's attacking strength (0.57x league average) is weighed against Eintracht Frankfurt's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.86. Flip it around — Eintracht Frankfurt's attack (1.01x) against SV Darmstadt 98's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.78.
These ratings are built from SV Darmstadt 98's last 17 games and Eintracht Frankfurt's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 0-2 (11.3%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
16%
6.30
27%
3.75
57%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.3%
Away win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
2.64
1.78
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
6.30
16%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
1.74
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
17%
5.95
42%
2.36
Win to Nil
3%
37.51
24%
4.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 12.7 | 11.3 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs Eintracht Frankfurt Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.78 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 51 outings, SV Darmstadt 98 have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 22W 11D 18L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Eintracht Frankfurt's form line: 20W 17D 14L from 51 games, 1.51 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for SV Darmstadt 98 against 1.51 for Eintracht Frankfurt. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SV Darmstadt 98 have posted 1.65 PPG from their last 26 home games (12W 7D 7L).
On the road, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 7W 9D 10L from their last 26 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Darmstadt 98 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.67 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt in 65%.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98 (Home) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs Eintracht Frankfurt Form FAQs
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 22W 11D 18L in their last 51 games (1.51 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 20W 17D 14L in their last 51 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 1.65 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 20 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SV Darmstadt 98
1
Draws
1
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs Eintracht Frankfurt H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 0, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 January 2024: SV Darmstadt 98 2-2 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 54%, Eintracht Frankfurt 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (SV Darmstadt 98) and 65% (Eintracht Frankfurt). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs Eintracht Frankfurt Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SV Darmstadt 98 and Eintracht Frankfurt matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of SV Darmstadt 98's games and 69% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SV Darmstadt 98 and Eintracht Frankfurt matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of SV Darmstadt 98's matches and 65% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and Eintracht Frankfurt matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent matches and 85% of Eintracht Frankfurt's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Darmstadt 98 and Eintracht Frankfurt share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 18, as SV Darmstadt 98 and Eintracht Frankfurt drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 0.86 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.78 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. SV Darmstadt 98 beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.57 / defence 1.40 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.01 / defence 0.83, drawn from 17/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 16% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Frankfurt 57%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 55%, Eintracht Frankfurt 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Darmstadt 98 1.51 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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