Union Berlin 1-0 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Union Berlin face SV Darmstadt 98.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Union Berlin welcome SV Darmstadt 98 to Stadion An der Alten Försterei in Bundesliga (matchday 19). Kick-off is Sunday 28 January 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Union Berlin — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home, Union Berlin have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Union Berlin are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, SV Darmstadt 98 stand at 0W 4D 6L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
SV Darmstadt 98's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Union Berlin) versus 0.40 (SV Darmstadt 98). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Union Berlin have won 1, SV Darmstadt 98 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 26 Aug 2023, ended Union Berlin 4–1 SV Darmstadt 98 — a Union Berlin win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Union Berlin trading profile (last 51 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
SV Darmstadt 98 trading profile (last 51 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 45% versus SV Darmstadt 98 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 53% | SV Darmstadt 98 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 2.16 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.868 / defence 1.076 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.990 / defence 1.430. League average goals — home 1.738 / away 1.298. SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating of 1.430 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Union Berlin's projected output up. Data: built from Union Berlin's last 51 games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 18.
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 54% | Draw 23% | SV Darmstadt 98 23%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 1.85 | Draw 4.41 | SV Darmstadt 98 4.31. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (2.16 / 1.38) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Union Berlin as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union Berlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.54 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Union Berlin's last 10 home games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 10 away games) averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Union Berlin 40% (last 10 home games) | SV Darmstadt 98 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 19 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Sunday 28 January 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 54% | Draw 23% | SV Darmstadt 98 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG Union Berlin 2.16 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.868 / def 1.076 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.990 / def 1.430 | league avg home 1.738 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.38
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union Berlin vs SV Darmstadt 98 FAQs
What time does Union Berlin vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
Union Berlin vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 28 January 2024 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Union Berlin 1 - 0 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is Union Berlin vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
Union Berlin vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 19) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 54% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Union Berlin and SV Darmstadt 98 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Union Berlin vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Union Berlin's attack rating (0.87) and SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 2.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SV Darmstadt 98's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Union Berlin's last 51 games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 18 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
54%
1.85
23%
4.41
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
3.54
1.38
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.06
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
12%
8.65
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
3%
37.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union Berlin vs SV Darmstadt 98 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.38 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union Berlin come into this having played 51 games, going 22W 10D 19L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, SV Darmstadt 98 sit at 1.53 PPG from 51 outings (22W 12D 17L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union Berlin on 1.49 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Union Berlin's home form reads 13W 7D 4L across their last 24 home games, a 1.92 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.49 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, SV Darmstadt 98 have taken 1.42 points per game from their last 24 away games (10W 4D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union Berlin are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.41 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
Union Berlin (Home) vs SV Darmstadt 98 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union Berlin
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
❓ Union Berlin vs SV Darmstadt 98 Form FAQs
What form are Union Berlin and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 22W 10D 19L in their last 51 games (1.49 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 22W 12D 17L in their last 51 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.92 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from August 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 28 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Union Berlin
0
Draws
0
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Union Berlin vs SV Darmstadt 98 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and SV Darmstadt 98?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Union Berlin have won 2, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 January 2024: Union Berlin 1-0 SV Darmstadt 98.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and SV Darmstadt 98?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
SV Darmstadt 98 see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 46%, SV Darmstadt 98 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Union Berlin) and 62% (SV Darmstadt 98). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Union Berlin have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union Berlin vs SV Darmstadt 98 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union Berlin and SV Darmstadt 98 matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 54% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Union Berlin and SV Darmstadt 98 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Union Berlin's matches and 62% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do Union Berlin and SV Darmstadt 98 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 58% of SV Darmstadt 98's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union Berlin edge out SV Darmstadt 98 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat SV Darmstadt 98 1-0 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 2.16 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.38 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Union Berlin fell 1.2 short of their projected output. SV Darmstadt 98 landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.87 / defence 1.08 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.99 / defence 1.43, drawn from 51/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 54% | Draw 23% | SV Darmstadt 98 23%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 53%, SV Darmstadt 98 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.49 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Berlin win broke the near-deadlock. Union Berlin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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