RB Leipzig 0-1 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RB Leipzig at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
RB Leipzig and Eintracht Frankfurt meet at Leipzig Stadium in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 January 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
RB Leipzig's overall Bundesliga record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for RB Leipzig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Leipzig Stadium, RB Leipzig have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — RB Leipzig are significantly better at Leipzig Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Eintracht Frankfurt (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — RB Leipzig register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Eintracht Frankfurt in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: RB Leipzig 1W, Eintracht Frankfurt 1W, 2D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2023, ended 2–1 with RB Leipzig winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
RB Leipzig — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Eintracht Frankfurt — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — RB Leipzig 58% and Eintracht Frankfurt 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (RB Leipzig 70% | Eintracht Frankfurt 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Leipzig 2.37 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Leipzig attack 1.320 / defence 0.842 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.002 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.888 / away 1.291. RB Leipzig carry an above-average attack strength of 1.320 — their λ of 2.37 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 50 RB Leipzig games / 50 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Leipzig 65% | Draw 21% | Eintracht Frankfurt 15%. Fair-value odds: RB Leipzig 1.54 | Draw 4.76 | Eintracht Frankfurt 6.67. The model has a clear lean to RB Leipzig (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.37 / 1.09) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RB Leipzig at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.46 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: RB Leipzig 70% | Eintracht Frankfurt 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Leipzig Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jan 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Leipzig 65% | Draw 21% | Eintracht Frankfurt 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 61% | xG RB Leipzig 2.37 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: RB Leipzig attack 1.320 / def 0.842 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.002 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.888 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: RB Leipzig (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
RB Leipzig xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
61%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 13 January 2024 at Leipzig Stadium.
What was the final score in RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
RB Leipzig 0 - 1 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at Leipzig Stadium.
What competition is RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives RB Leipzig a 65% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making RB Leipzig the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both RB Leipzig and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Record (4 meetings): RB Leipzig 1W | Draws 2 | Eintracht Frankfurt 1W.
What form are RB Leipzig and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
RB Leipzig (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
RB Leipzig's attacking strength (1.32x league average) is weighed against Eintracht Frankfurt's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.37. Flip it around — Eintracht Frankfurt's attack (1.00x) against RB Leipzig's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.2%), 2-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
65%
1.55
21%
4.80
15%
6.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
RB Leipzig xG
Total xG
3.46
1.09
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
1.55
65%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
6.86
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
9%
10.73
Win to Nil
22%
4.60
1%
73.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.5 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are RB Leipzig and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for RB Leipzig and 1.09 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
RB Leipzig come into this having played 50 games, going 30W 9D 11L for 1.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-D. The sample for RB Leipzig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Eintracht Frankfurt sit at 1.48 PPG from 50 outings (19W 17D 14L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RB Leipzig carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Eintracht Frankfurt — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
RB Leipzig's home form reads 19W 4D 2L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.44 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.98 PPG overall — RB Leipzig are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Eintracht Frankfurt have taken 1.08 points per game from 25 outings (6W 9D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Leipzig come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
RB Leipzig are averaging 2.04 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.68 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt in 66%.
Last 50 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Leipzig
Blended
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Leipzig and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
RB Leipzig have gone 30W 9D 11L in their last 50 games (1.98 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 19W 17D 14L in their last 50 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Leipzig at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
RB Leipzig's home record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Leipzig at home: 2.44 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.08 PPG.
Have RB Leipzig or Eintracht Frankfurt been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Eintracht Frankfurt in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
RB Leipzig have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: RB Leipzig won 6-0 on 6 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RB Leipzig have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Eintracht Frankfurt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
RB Leipzig
3
Draws
3
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, RB Leipzig have won 4, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did RB Leipzig and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 RB Leipzig.
Who has won more matches between RB Leipzig and Eintracht Frankfurt?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for RB Leipzig, 72% for Eintracht Frankfurt — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for RB Leipzig and 68% for Eintracht Frankfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RB Leipzig keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Leipzig home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Leipzig play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of RB Leipzig's games and 72% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of RB Leipzig's matches and 68% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do RB Leipzig and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
RB Leipzig have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Eintracht Frankfurt defy the odds to beat RB Leipzig 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat RB Leipzig 0-1 at Leipzig Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Leipzig 2.37 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.09 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. RB Leipzig fell 2.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Leipzig attack 1.32 / defence 0.84 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.00 / defence 0.95, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Leipzig 65% | Draw 21% | Eintracht Frankfurt 15%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a Eintracht Frankfurt win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Leipzig 70%, Eintracht Frankfurt 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Leipzig's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Leipzig arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.48. Form was overturned, with Eintracht Frankfurt winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.48 scoring average — below par going forward. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.