SV Darmstadt 98 0-3 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Darmstadt 98 vs Borussia Dortmund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Borussia Dortmund make the trip to Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor to face SV Darmstadt 98 in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 January 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
SV Darmstadt 98 (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Darmstadt 98's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Borussia Dortmund have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D L D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Dortmund's away record: 3W 6D 1L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Borussia Dortmund arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
SV Darmstadt 98 half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Borussia Dortmund half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Darmstadt 98 54% versus Borussia Dortmund 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 54% | Borussia Dortmund 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 0.98 xG and Borussia Dortmund 2.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.625 / defence 1.334 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.236 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.818 / away 1.265. SV Darmstadt 98's attack strength of 0.625 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Borussia Dortmund have an above-average attack strength of 1.236 — the away xG of 2.09 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 16 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 50 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 16% | Draw 23% | Borussia Dortmund 61%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 6.25 | Draw 4.35 | Borussia Dortmund 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Dortmund (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: SV Darmstadt 98 50% | Borussia Dortmund 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jan 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 16% | Draw 23% | Borussia Dortmund 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 56% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 0.98 / Borussia Dortmund 2.09 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.625 / def 1.334 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.236 / def 0.863 | league avg home 1.818 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
2.09
Borussia Dortmund xG
56%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 13 January 2024 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs Borussia Dortmund?
SV Darmstadt 98 0 - 3 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 16% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 61% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and Borussia Dortmund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and Borussia Dortmund in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SV Darmstadt 98's attacking strength (0.62x league average) is weighed against Borussia Dortmund's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. Flip it around — Borussia Dortmund's attack (1.24x) against SV Darmstadt 98's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 2.09.
These ratings are built from 16/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.1%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
16%
6.45
23%
4.33
61%
1.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
3.07
2.09
Borussia Dortmund xG
6.45
16%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
1.63
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
12%
8.05
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
2%
51.92
23%
4.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 9.7 | 10.1 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 2.09 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs Borussia Dortmund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SV Darmstadt 98 come into this having played 50 games, going 22W 11D 17L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-D. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Borussia Dortmund sit at 1.96 PPG from 50 outings (29W 11D 10L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of SV Darmstadt 98 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
SV Darmstadt 98's home form reads 11W 7D 6L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Borussia Dortmund have taken 1.54 points per game from 24 outings (10W 7D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Borussia Dortmund's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.26 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund in 62%.
Last 50 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 22W 11D 17L in their last 50 games (1.54 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 29W 11D 10L in their last 50 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 1.67 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.54 PPG.
Have SV Darmstadt 98 or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Darmstadt 98 have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since January 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SV Darmstadt 98
0
Draws
2
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and Borussia Dortmund?
From 2 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 0, Borussia Dortmund have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2024, when Borussia Dortmund 4-0 SV Darmstadt 98.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 54%, Borussia Dortmund 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (SV Darmstadt 98) and 58% (Borussia Dortmund).
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of SV Darmstadt 98's games and 67% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent games and 58% of Borussia Dortmund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Borussia Dortmund run riot with a 0-3 hammering of SV Darmstadt 98.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat SV Darmstadt 98 0-3 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 0.98 xG and Borussia Dortmund 2.09 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. SV Darmstadt 98 fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Borussia Dortmund outscored their 2.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.62 / defence 1.33 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.24 / defence 0.86, drawn from 16/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 16% | Draw 23% | Borussia Dortmund 61%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 54%, Borussia Dortmund 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.54. Form held, and they took the win. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.