1. FC Köln 1-1 1. FC Heidenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Köln at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Köln vs 1. FC Heidenheim fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
1. FC Heidenheim make the trip to Cologne Stadium to face 1. FC Köln in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 January 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
1. FC Köln have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Köln's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Cologne Stadium this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
1. FC Heidenheim (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Heidenheim's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for 1. FC Köln, 1.30 for 1. FC Heidenheim — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — 1. FC Köln have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, 1. FC Heidenheim in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
1. FC Köln goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
1. FC Heidenheim goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Köln 54% versus 1. FC Heidenheim 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 46% | 1. FC Heidenheim 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 1.33 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 0.678 / defence 0.943 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.868 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.888 / away 1.291. 1. FC Köln's attack strength of 0.678 is below the league average — the 1.33 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 50 1. FC Köln games / 16 1. FC Heidenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 41% | Draw 32% | 1. FC Heidenheim 28%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | 1. FC Heidenheim 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Köln at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Köln if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Köln 60% | 1. FC Heidenheim 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs 1. FC Heidenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Cologne Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jan 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 41% | Draw 32% | 1. FC Heidenheim 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG 1. FC Köln 1.33 / 1. FC Heidenheim 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 0.678 / def 0.943 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.868 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.888 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Köln (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
1.06
1. FC Heidenheim xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs 1. FC Heidenheim kick off?
1. FC Köln vs 1. FC Heidenheim kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 13 January 2024 at Cologne Stadium.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
1. FC Köln 1 - 1 1. FC Heidenheim.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs 1. FC Heidenheim being played?
The match is being played at Cologne Stadium.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs 1. FC Heidenheim part of?
1. FC Köln vs 1. FC Heidenheim is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 41% chance of winning, 1. FC Heidenheim a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Köln the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both 1. FC Köln and 1. FC Heidenheim will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs 1. FC Heidenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and 1. FC Heidenheim?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Köln and 1. FC Heidenheim in?
1. FC Köln (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. 1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
1. FC Köln's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Heidenheim's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — 1. FC Heidenheim's attack (0.87x) against 1. FC Köln's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 50/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Köln Win
41%
2.44
32%
3.17
28%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
2.39
1.06
1. FC Heidenheim xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.64
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
14%
7.02
7%
13.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.9 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and 1. FC Heidenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.06 for 1. FC Heidenheim, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Köln's recent record stands at 12W 16D 22L from 50 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Heidenheim, meanwhile, have gone 25W 12D 13L across 50 games — 1.74 PPG, with D-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours 1. FC Heidenheim by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over 1. FC Köln heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, 1. FC Köln have managed 7W 7D 10L from 24 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1. FC Heidenheim's away record stands at 7W 7D 10L across 24 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.74 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of 1. FC Heidenheim's season.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Köln are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Heidenheim are on 1.84 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: 1. FC Heidenheim in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Blended
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Köln and 1. FC Heidenheim in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 12W 16D 22L in their last 50 games (1.04 PPG), while 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 25W 12D 13L in their last 50 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Köln at home or 1. FC Heidenheim away?
1. FC Köln's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Köln at home: 1.17 PPG; 1. FC Heidenheim away: 1.17 PPG.
Have 1. FC Köln or 1. FC Heidenheim been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Köln have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, 1. FC Heidenheim in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Heidenheim won 4-1 on 18 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Köln have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Heidenheim — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
1. FC Köln
2
Draws
2
1. FC Heidenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and 1. FC Heidenheim?
From 4 meetings on record, 1. FC Köln have won 0, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and 1. FC Heidenheim last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when 1. FC Köln 1-3 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Köln and 1. FC Heidenheim?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Köln 54%, 1. FC Heidenheim 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (1. FC Köln) and 54% (1. FC Heidenheim).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Köln have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / 1. FC Heidenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Köln play 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of 1. FC Köln's recent matches and 54% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Köln vs 1. FC Heidenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of 1. FC Köln's recent games and 54% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Köln and 1. FC Heidenheim tend to score early?
1. FC Köln have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, 1. FC Heidenheim in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Köln and 1. FC Heidenheim share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Cologne Stadium, Regular Season - 17, as 1. FC Köln and 1. FC Heidenheim drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.33 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.06 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 0.68 / defence 0.94 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.87 / defence 1.04, drawn from 50/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 41% | Draw 32% | 1. FC Heidenheim 28%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 46%, 1. FC Heidenheim 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Köln's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Heidenheim arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.