FC Augsburg 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen encounter.

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Full Analysis

WWK Arena plays host to FC Augsburg versus Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga (matchday 17). Kick-off: Saturday 13 January 2024 at 14:30 UK time.

Current Form

FC Augsburg's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

FC Augsburg at home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Bayer Leverkusen (all games): 8W 2D 0L across their last 10 — 2.60 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

When travelling, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

On a straight form reading, Bayer Leverkusen are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, FC Augsburg edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 3 Feb 2023, ended FC Augsburg 1–0 Bayer Leverkusen — a FC Augsburg win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

FC Augsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Bayer Leverkusen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 66% and Bayer Leverkusen 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Augsburg 58% | Bayer Leverkusen 72%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FC Augsburg surrender their half-time lead 56% of the time, while Bayer Leverkusen have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.22 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.935 / defence 1.070 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.339 / defence 0.689. League average goals — home 1.888 / away 1.291. Bayer Leverkusen bring a tight defence (rating 0.689, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling FC Augsburg's projected output down. Bayer Leverkusen have an above-average attack rating of 1.339, which lifts their away xG to 1.85. Data: built from FC Augsburg's last 50 games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 50.

Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 23% | Draw 26% | Bayer Leverkusen 51%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 4.28 | Draw 3.83 | Bayer Leverkusen 1.98. Bayer Leverkusen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.22 / 1.85) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (FC Augsburg's last 10 home games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Augsburg 80% (last 10 home games) | Bayer Leverkusen 50% (last 10 away games).

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