SV Darmstadt 98 0-1 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Köln fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SV Darmstadt 98 host 1. FC Köln at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 1 December 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Darmstadt 98's home record at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
1. FC Köln — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Köln's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (SV Darmstadt 98) versus 0.60 (1. FC Köln). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
SV Darmstadt 98 trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
1. FC Köln trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Darmstadt 98 54% versus 1. FC Köln 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 54% | 1. FC Köln 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.66 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.780 / defence 1.369 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.710 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.900 / away 1.466. SV Darmstadt 98's attack strength of 0.780 is below the league average — the 1.66 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 46 1. FC Köln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 40% | Draw 29% | 1. FC Köln 30%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | 1. FC Köln 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SV Darmstadt 98 70% | 1. FC Köln 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Friday 1 Dec 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 40% | Draw 29% | 1. FC Köln 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 64% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.66 / 1. FC Köln 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.780 / def 1.369 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.710 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.900 / away 1.466 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.43
1. FC Köln xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Köln kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 1 December 2023 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Köln?
SV Darmstadt 98 0 - 1 1. FC Köln.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Köln part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Köln is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 40% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Köln will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Köln?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Köln in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. 1. FC Köln (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SV Darmstadt 98's attack at 0.78x the league average against 1. FC Köln's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Köln's attack versus SV Darmstadt 98's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
40%
2.48
29%
3.39
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
3.08
1.43
1. FC Köln xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
19%
5.25
Win to Nil
10%
10.31
6%
17.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.8 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.43 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Köln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SV Darmstadt 98 come into this having played 46 games, going 22W 10D 14L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, 1. FC Köln sit at 1.04 PPG from 46 outings (11W 15D 20L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Darmstadt 98 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of 1. FC Köln — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
SV Darmstadt 98's home form reads 12W 7D 4L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Köln have taken 0.91 points per game from 23 outings (4W 9D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Darmstadt 98 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 1.26 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
1. FC Köln
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 22W 10D 14L in their last 46 games (1.65 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 11W 15D 20L in their last 46 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or 1. FC Köln away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 1.87 PPG; 1. FC Köln away: 0.91 PPG.
Have SV Darmstadt 98 or 1. FC Köln been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Darmstadt 98 have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, 1. FC Köln in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Oct 2024, when SV Darmstadt 98 won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SV Darmstadt 98's record when hosting 1. FC Köln specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
SV Darmstadt 98
0
Draws
2
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Köln?
From 4 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 2, 1. FC Köln have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when 1. FC Köln 2-1 SV Darmstadt 98.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 61%, 1. FC Köln 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (SV Darmstadt 98) and 52% (1. FC Köln).
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; 1. FC Köln in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play 1. FC Köln?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of SV Darmstadt 98's games and 61% of 1. FC Köln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Köln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent games and 52% of 1. FC Köln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Köln tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, 1. FC Köln in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as 1. FC Köln defy the odds to beat SV Darmstadt 98 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Köln beat SV Darmstadt 98 0-1 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.66 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.43 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SV Darmstadt 98 fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.78 / defence 1.37 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.71 / defence 1.12, drawn from 12/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 40% | Draw 29% | 1. FC Köln 30%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual 1. FC Köln win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 54%, 1. FC Köln 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
1. FC Köln's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.04. Form was overturned, with 1. FC Köln winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.