Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Bayer Leverkusen welcome Borussia Dortmund to BayArena in Bundesliga (matchday 13). Kick-off is Sunday 3 December 2023 at 16:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Bayer Leverkusen — last 10 games: 9W 1D 0L, averaging 2.80 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bayer Leverkusen at home: 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Borussia Dortmund have recorded 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Borussia Dortmund's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Bayer Leverkusen carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.80 vs 2.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Bayer Leverkusen's last 10 home games and Borussia Dortmund's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Bayer Leverkusen, 3 for Borussia Dortmund and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 29 Jan 2023, ended Bayer Leverkusen 0–2 Borussia Dortmund — a Borussia Dortmund win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Bayer Leverkusen in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Borussia Dortmund in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bayer Leverkusen 54% versus Borussia Dortmund 59%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bayer Leverkusen 74% | Borussia Dortmund 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayer Leverkusen 2.60 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.394 / defence 0.834 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.298 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.859 / away 1.434. Bayer Leverkusen carry an above-average attack rating of 1.394 — their 2.60 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Borussia Dortmund have an above-average attack rating of 1.298, which lifts their away xG to 1.55. Data: built from Bayer Leverkusen's last 46 games and Borussia Dortmund's last 46.
Result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 59% | Draw 20% | Borussia Dortmund 21%. Fair-value odds: Bayer Leverkusen 1.69 | Draw 4.97 | Borussia Dortmund 4.84. The model has a clear lean to Bayer Leverkusen (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS Yes probability 74% | Total xG 4.16. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.16 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% — both xG figures (2.60 / 1.55) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bayer Leverkusen are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 4.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 78% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Bayer Leverkusen's last 10 home games and Borussia Dortmund's last 10 away games) averaging 4.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 74% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bayer Leverkusen 70% (last 10 home games) | Borussia Dortmund 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 13 | Venue: BayArena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 December 2023 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 59% | Draw 20% | Borussia Dortmund 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% (Under 22%) | BTTS Yes 74% (No 26%) | xG Bayer Leverkusen 2.60 / Borussia Dortmund 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.394 / def 0.834 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.298 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.859 / away 1.434 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.60
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Borussia Dortmund xG
74%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund FAQs
What time does Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 3 December 2023 at BayArena.
What was the final score in Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund?
Bayer Leverkusen 1 - 1 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at BayArena.
What competition is Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 13) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 59% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 21% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bayer Leverkusen's attack at 1.39x the league average against Borussia Dortmund's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 2.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus Bayer Leverkusen's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bayer Leverkusen's last 46 games and Borussia Dortmund's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (7.2%), 1-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
59%
1.69
20%
4.97
21%
4.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.2%
Home win
2 – 2
6.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.60
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Total xG
4.16
1.55
Borussia Dortmund xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.97
20%
Draw
4.84
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
60%
Over 3.5
1.67
40%
Under 3.5
2.50
40%
Over 4.5
2.50
60%
Under 4.5
1.67
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.85
Clean Sheet
21%
4.72
7%
13.52
Win to Nil
13%
7.97
2%
65.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 2.60 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.55 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 4.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Bayer Leverkusen have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 25W 9D 12L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Borussia Dortmund's form line: 29W 8D 9L from 46 games, 2.07 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bayer Leverkusen on 1.83 PPG, Borussia Dortmund on 2.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 2.05 PPG from their last 22 home games (14W 3D 5L).
On the road, Borussia Dortmund have gone 10W 5D 7L from their last 22 away games — 1.59 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Borussia Dortmund's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bayer Leverkusen are averaging 2.04 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.35 scored and 1.37 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen (Home) vs Borussia Dortmund (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
❓ Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund Form FAQs
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
Bayer Leverkusen have gone 25W 9D 12L in their last 46 games (1.83 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 29W 8D 9L in their last 46 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayer Leverkusen at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Bayer Leverkusen's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayer Leverkusen at home: 2.05 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Bayer Leverkusen or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bayer Leverkusen have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 11 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Feb 2022, when Bayer Leverkusen won Borussia Dortmund 2-5 Bayer Leverkusen.
Bayer Leverkusen's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bayer Leverkusen
2
Draws
5
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bayer Leverkusen have won 3, Borussia Dortmund have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2026: Borussia Dortmund 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bayer Leverkusen 59%, Borussia Dortmund 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Bayer Leverkusen and 64% for Borussia Dortmund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bayer Leverkusen keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayer Leverkusen home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Bayer Leverkusen's games and 64% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Bayer Leverkusen's matches and 64% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 91% of Bayer Leverkusen's recent matches and 91% of Borussia Dortmund's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at BayArena, Regular Season - 13, as Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 2.60 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.55 xG, a combined 4.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.39 / defence 0.83 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.30 / defence 1.00, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 59% | Draw 20% | Borussia Dortmund 21%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 60% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 74%, Borussia Dortmund 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bayer Leverkusen 1.83 PPG, Borussia Dortmund 2.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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