FSV Mainz 05 0-1 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates FSV Mainz 05 at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FSV Mainz 05 face SC Freiburg.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg meet at MEWA ARENA in Bundesliga (matchday 13). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 December 2023 at 14:30 UK time.

Form

FSV Mainz 05 (all games): 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

FSV Mainz 05 at home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

SC Freiburg's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

SC Freiburg's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from FSV Mainz 05's last 10 home games and SC Freiburg's last 10 away games) — FSV Mainz 05 have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, SC Freiburg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for FSV Mainz 05, 1 for SC Freiburg and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.8 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 19 Mar 2023, ended FSV Mainz 05 1–1 SC Freiburg — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

FSV Mainz 05 — key trading statistics (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

SC Freiburg — key trading statistics (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FSV Mainz 05 65% versus SC Freiburg 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 65% | SC Freiburg 54%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FSV Mainz 05 surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while SC Freiburg have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 1.70 xG and SC Freiburg 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.908 / defence 1.067 | SC Freiburg attack 0.790 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.879 / away 1.437. SC Freiburg's attack rating of 0.790 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.21. Data: built from FSV Mainz 05's last 46 games and SC Freiburg's last 46.

Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 46% | Draw 29% | SC Freiburg 25%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 2.16 | Draw 3.46 | SC Freiburg 4.02. FSV Mainz 05 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.70 / 1.21) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates FSV Mainz 05 as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FSV Mainz 05 if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (FSV Mainz 05's last 10 home games and SC Freiburg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FSV Mainz 05 80% (last 10 home games) | SC Freiburg 60% (last 10 away games).

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