FC Augsburg 2-1 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Eintracht Frankfurt travel to WWK Arena to take on FC Augsburg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 December 2023, 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC Augsburg have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at WWK Arena, FC Augsburg have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Eintracht Frankfurt — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Frankfurt's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Augsburg 1.30 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, FC Augsburg have won 0, Eintracht Frankfurt 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
FC Augsburg in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 67% and Eintracht Frankfurt 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 59% | Eintracht Frankfurt 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.52 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.936 / defence 1.154 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.072 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.842 / away 1.427. Data: 46 FC Augsburg games / 46 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 32% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Frankfurt 42%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Eintracht Frankfurt 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Eintracht Frankfurt are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 80% | Eintracht Frankfurt 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Dec 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 32% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Frankfurt 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 67% | xG FC Augsburg 1.52 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.936 / def 1.154 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.072 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.842 / away 1.427 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 3 December 2023 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
FC Augsburg 2 - 1 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 32% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Record (4 meetings): FC Augsburg 0W | Draws 3 | Eintracht Frankfurt 1W.
What form are FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Augsburg's attack rating (0.94) and Eintracht Frankfurt's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Frankfurt's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
32%
3.17
27%
3.74
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
3.29
1.77
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.00
Clean Sheet
17%
5.85
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
5%
18.56
9%
10.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.0 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.77 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Augsburg's recent record stands at 12W 12D 22L from 46 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eintracht Frankfurt, meanwhile, have gone 17W 17D 12L across 46 games — 1.48 PPG, with W-D-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Eintracht Frankfurt by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Augsburg heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Augsburg have managed 8W 7D 8L from 23 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record stands at 6W 9D 8L across 23 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.65 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Eintracht Frankfurt in 65%.
Last 46 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 12W 12D 22L in their last 46 games (1.04 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 17W 17D 12L in their last 46 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.35 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
FC Augsburg's record when hosting Eintracht Frankfurt specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
FC Augsburg
6
Draws
3
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 1, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when FC Augsburg 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Augsburg see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Augsburg at 61%, Eintracht Frankfurt at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (FC Augsburg) and 65% (Eintracht Frankfurt). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of FC Augsburg's games and 74% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of FC Augsburg's matches and 65% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Augsburg defy the odds to beat Eintracht Frankfurt 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat Eintracht Frankfurt 2-1 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.52 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.77 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.94 / defence 1.15 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.07 / defence 0.88, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 32% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Frankfurt 42%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual FC Augsburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 59%, Eintracht Frankfurt 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Eintracht Frankfurt arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 1.04. Form was overturned, with FC Augsburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.