SC Freiburg 1-1 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Freiburg at 70% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SC Freiburg face SV Darmstadt 98.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SC Freiburg host SV Darmstadt 98 at Europa-Park Stadion in Bundesliga (matchday 12). Kick-off is Saturday 25 November 2023 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, SC Freiburg stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
SC Freiburg's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — SC Freiburg are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
SV Darmstadt 98 — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 3.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
SV Darmstadt 98's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SC Freiburg 1.10 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
SC Freiburg trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
SV Darmstadt 98 trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 51% versus SV Darmstadt 98 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 56% | SV Darmstadt 98 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: SC Freiburg surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while SV Darmstadt 98 have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that SV Darmstadt 98 surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while SC Freiburg recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 2.71 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 0.978 / defence 0.990 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.743 / defence 1.416. League average goals — home 1.958 / away 1.485. SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating of 1.416 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SC Freiburg's projected output up. SV Darmstadt 98's attack rating of 0.743 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.09. Data: built from SC Freiburg's last 45 games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 11.
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 70% | Draw 18% | SV Darmstadt 98 12%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 1.42 | Draw 5.63 | SV Darmstadt 98 8.50. The model has a clear lean to SC Freiburg (70%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.80. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.80 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (2.71 / 1.09) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SC Freiburg as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.80 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SC Freiburg's last 10 home games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: SC Freiburg 40% (last 10 home games) | SV Darmstadt 98 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 12 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 25 November 2023 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 70% | Draw 18% | SV Darmstadt 98 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% (Under 27%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG SC Freiburg 2.71 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 0.978 / def 0.990 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.743 / def 1.416 | league avg home 1.958 / away 1.485 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.71
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.09
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
63%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SC Freiburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 FAQs
What time does SC Freiburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
SC Freiburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Europa-Park Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
SC Freiburg 1 - 1 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is SC Freiburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
SC Freiburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 12) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 70% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 12% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both SC Freiburg and SV Darmstadt 98 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SC Freiburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SC Freiburg's attack rating (0.98) and SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 2.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SV Darmstadt 98's attack versus SC Freiburg's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SC Freiburg's last 45 games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 11 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.2%), 3-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
70%
1.42
18%
5.63
12%
8.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.71
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
3.80
1.09
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
1.42
70%
Home win
5.63
18%
Draw
8.50
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
7%
15.06
Win to Nil
24%
4.23
1%
128.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SC Freiburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 2.71 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.09 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 3.80.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SC Freiburg come into this having played 45 games, going 21W 10D 14L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L.
On the other side, SV Darmstadt 98 sit at 1.67 PPG from 45 outings (22W 9D 14L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Freiburg on 1.62 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
SC Freiburg's home form reads 13W 5D 4L across their last 22 home games, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, SV Darmstadt 98 have taken 1.45 points per game from their last 22 away games (10W 2D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.42 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
SC Freiburg (Home) vs SV Darmstadt 98 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SC Freiburg
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
❓ SC Freiburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 Form FAQs
What form are SC Freiburg and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 21W 10D 14L in their last 45 games (1.62 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 22W 9D 14L in their last 45 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
SC Freiburg's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 2.00 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 1.45 PPG.
Have SC Freiburg or SV Darmstadt 98 been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, SV Darmstadt 98 in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 14 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
SC Freiburg
1
Draws
0
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ SC Freiburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and SV Darmstadt 98?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, SC Freiburg have won 1, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 April 2024: SV Darmstadt 98 0-1 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and SV Darmstadt 98?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Freiburg see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
SV Darmstadt 98 see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Freiburg 54%, SV Darmstadt 98 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (SC Freiburg) and 59% (SV Darmstadt 98).
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; SV Darmstadt 98 in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SC Freiburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SC Freiburg and SV Darmstadt 98 matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of SC Freiburg's recent matches and 46% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are SC Freiburg and SV Darmstadt 98 matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of SC Freiburg's recent games and 59% of SV Darmstadt 98's, pointing to a tighter contest.
SC Freiburg and SV Darmstadt 98 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg and SV Darmstadt 98 finished level at 1-1 at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 2.71 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.09 xG, a combined 3.80. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. SC Freiburg fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 0.98 / defence 0.99 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.74 / defence 1.42, drawn from 45/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 70% | Draw 18% | SV Darmstadt 98 12%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 56%, SV Darmstadt 98 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.62 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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