SC Freiburg 1-1 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SC Freiburg (58%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as SC Freiburg face VfL Wolfsburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
VfL Wolfsburg travel to Europa-Park-Stadion to take on SC Freiburg in Bundesliga (matchday 32). The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 May 2026 at 19:30 UK time.
Form Guide
SC Freiburg — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
SC Freiburg's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — SC Freiburg are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, VfL Wolfsburg have recorded 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
SC Freiburg are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from SC Freiburg's last 10 home games and VfL Wolfsburg's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of SC Freiburg: 7 wins from 9 H2H matches against 2 for VfL Wolfsburg, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.6 per game across the 9 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 20 Dec 2025, ended SC Freiburg 4–3 VfL Wolfsburg — a SC Freiburg win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both SC Freiburg and goals — 7 wins from 9 H2H matches and an average of 3.6 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
SC Freiburg trading profile (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
VfL Wolfsburg trading profile (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Freiburg 57% and VfL Wolfsburg 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 66% | VfL Wolfsburg 63%). Note also that VfL Wolfsburg surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while SC Freiburg recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 2.33 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.040 / defence 0.969 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.991 / defence 1.303. League average goals — home 1.720 / away 1.482. VfL Wolfsburg's defence rating of 1.303 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SC Freiburg's projected output up. Data: built from SC Freiburg's last 65 games and VfL Wolfsburg's last 65.
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 58% | Draw 20% | VfL Wolfsburg 23%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 1.73 | Draw 5.07 | VfL Wolfsburg 4.43. The model has a clear lean to SC Freiburg (58%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (2.33 / 1.42) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SC Freiburg as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SC Freiburg's last 10 home games and VfL Wolfsburg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SC Freiburg 70% (last 10 home games) | VfL Wolfsburg 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 32 | Venue: Europa-Park-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 58% | Draw 20% | VfL Wolfsburg 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% (Under 28%) | BTTS Yes 69% (No 31%) | xG SC Freiburg 2.33 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.040 / def 0.969 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.991 / def 1.303 | league avg home 1.720 / away 1.482 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.42
VfL Wolfsburg xG
69%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg FAQs
What time does SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Sunday 3 May 2026 at Europa-Park-Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg?
SC Freiburg 1 - 1 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park-Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 32) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 58% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 23% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both SC Freiburg and VfL Wolfsburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SC Freiburg's attack rating (1.04) and VfL Wolfsburg's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 2.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Wolfsburg's attack versus SC Freiburg's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SC Freiburg's last 65 games and VfL Wolfsburg's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.8%), 3-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
58%
1.73
20%
5.07
23%
4.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
3 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
3.75
1.42
VfL Wolfsburg xG
1.73
58%
Home win
5.07
20%
Draw
4.43
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.19
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
10%
10.29
Win to Nil
14%
7.19
2%
45.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.42 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 3.75.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SC Freiburg come into this having played 65 games, going 28W 14D 23L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, VfL Wolfsburg sit at 1.05 PPG from 65 outings (17W 17D 31L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five.
SC Freiburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of VfL Wolfsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
SC Freiburg's home form reads 17W 7D 8L across their last 32 home games, a 1.81 PPG return.
Away from home, VfL Wolfsburg have taken 1.31 points per game from their last 32 away games (12W 6D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.49 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfL Wolfsburg in 71%.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Current Season
VfL Wolfsburg
Current Season
SC Freiburg (Home) vs VfL Wolfsburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SC Freiburg
Current Season
VfL Wolfsburg
Current Season
❓ SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg Form FAQs
What form are SC Freiburg and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 28W 14D 23L in their last 65 games (1.51 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 17W 17D 31L in their last 65 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.81 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 3 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Jan 2023, when VfL Wolfsburg won VfL Wolfsburg 6-0 SC Freiburg.
SC Freiburg's record when hosting VfL Wolfsburg specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
SC Freiburg
1
Draws
2
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and VfL Wolfsburg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, SC Freiburg have won 7, VfL Wolfsburg have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 May 2026: SC Freiburg 1-1 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and VfL Wolfsburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SC Freiburg at 75%, VfL Wolfsburg at 66%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for SC Freiburg and 62% for VfL Wolfsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SC Freiburg and VfL Wolfsburg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of SC Freiburg's games and 66% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SC Freiburg and VfL Wolfsburg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of SC Freiburg's matches and 62% of VfL Wolfsburg's.
Do SC Freiburg and VfL Wolfsburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of SC Freiburg's recent matches and 72% of VfL Wolfsburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Freiburg and VfL Wolfsburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Europa-Park-Stadion, Regular Season - 32, as SC Freiburg and VfL Wolfsburg drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 2.33 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.42 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. SC Freiburg fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.04 / defence 0.97 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.99 / defence 1.30, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 58% | Draw 20% | VfL Wolfsburg 23%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 66%, VfL Wolfsburg 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Freiburg arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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