Werder Bremen 1-3 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg meet at Weserstadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Werder Bremen (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Werder Bremen have posted 2W 3D 5L at Weserstadion — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
FC Augsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, FC Augsburg have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Werder Bremen against 1.50 for FC Augsburg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Werder Bremen lead 3W to 4W over the last 9 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Werder Bremen half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
FC Augsburg half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Werder Bremen 51% versus FC Augsburg 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 60% | FC Augsburg 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.35 xG and FC Augsburg 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.813 / defence 1.093 | FC Augsburg attack 0.882 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.703 / away 1.443. Data: 65 Werder Bremen games / 65 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 36% | Draw 27% | FC Augsburg 38%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | FC Augsburg 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Augsburg are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Werder Bremen 50% | FC Augsburg 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Weserstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 36% | Draw 27% | FC Augsburg 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Werder Bremen 1.35 / FC Augsburg 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.813 / def 1.093 | FC Augsburg attack 0.882 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.703 / away 1.443 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.39
FC Augsburg xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg kick off?
Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Weserstadion.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?
Werder Bremen 1 - 3 FC Augsburg.
Where is Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Weserstadion.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg part of?
Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 36% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg?
Record (9 meetings): Werder Bremen 3W | Draws 2 | FC Augsburg 4W.
What form are Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. FC Augsburg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Werder Bremen's attack rating (0.81) and FC Augsburg's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (0.88x) against Werder Bremen's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
36%
2.81
27%
3.73
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
2.74
1.39
FC Augsburg xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
9%
11.29
10%
10.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.1 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.2 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.39 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Werder Bremen come into this having played 65 games, going 22W 17D 26L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.23 PPG from 65 outings (21W 17D 27L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Werder Bremen against 1.23 for FC Augsburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Werder Bremen's home form reads 10W 10D 12L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 1.06 points per game from 32 outings (9W 7D 16L).
Attack vs Defence
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.14 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Current Season
FC Augsburg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 22W 17D 26L in their last 65 games (1.28 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 21W 17D 27L in their last 65 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or FC Augsburg away?
Werder Bremen's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.25 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Werder Bremen won 0-3 on 27 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Werder Bremen have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Werder Bremen
2
Draws
5
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 3, FC Augsburg have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Werder Bremen 1-3 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 47%, FC Augsburg 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Werder Bremen) and 59% (FC Augsburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Werder Bremen have failed to score in 34% of games; FC Augsburg in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play FC Augsburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Werder Bremen's recent matches and 53% of FC Augsburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Werder Bremen's matches and 59% of FC Augsburg's.
Do Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Augsburg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Werder Bremen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat Werder Bremen 1-3 at Weserstadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.35 xG and FC Augsburg 1.39 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. FC Augsburg outscored their 1.39 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.81 / defence 1.09 against FC Augsburg attack 0.88 / defence 0.97, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 36% | Draw 27% | FC Augsburg 38%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 60%, FC Augsburg 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Werder Bremen 1.28 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Augsburg win broke the near-deadlock. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.