🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg meet at Weserstadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 14:30 UTC.

Form

Werder Bremen (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Werder Bremen have posted 2W 3D 5L at Weserstadion — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

FC Augsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Bundesliga this season, FC Augsburg have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Werder Bremen against 1.50 for FC Augsburg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Werder Bremen lead 3W to 4W over the last 9 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Werder Bremen half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

FC Augsburg half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Werder Bremen 51% versus FC Augsburg 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 60% | FC Augsburg 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.35 xG and FC Augsburg 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.813 / defence 1.093 | FC Augsburg attack 0.882 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.703 / away 1.443. Data: 65 Werder Bremen games / 65 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 36% | Draw 27% | FC Augsburg 38%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | FC Augsburg 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, FC Augsburg are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Werder Bremen 50% | FC Augsburg 50%.

The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights