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Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 60% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees SC Freiburg travel to Signal Iduna Park to take on Borussia Dortmund. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 April 2026, 16:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Dortmund stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Signal Iduna Park, Borussia Dortmund have gone 8W 0D 2L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Signal Iduna Park. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Borussia Dortmund are significantly better at Signal Iduna Park than their overall form suggests.

Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Freiburg have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

On the road, SC Freiburg have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Borussia Dortmund 1.90 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

Borussia Dortmund hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 7 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 1 for SC Freiburg, with 1 draws in between.

The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Borussia Dortmund and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 4.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Data

Borussia Dortmund trading profile (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

SC Freiburg trading profile (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Dortmund 61% versus SC Freiburg 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Dortmund 64% | SC Freiburg 66%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 2.00 xG and SC Freiburg 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.188 / defence 0.854 | SC Freiburg attack 0.812 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.687 / away 1.452. Data: 64 Borussia Dortmund games / 64 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 60% | Draw 22% | SC Freiburg 18%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | SC Freiburg 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Dortmund (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Borussia Dortmund 40% | SC Freiburg 50%.

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