Borussia Dortmund 4-0 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 60% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees SC Freiburg travel to Signal Iduna Park to take on Borussia Dortmund. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 April 2026, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Dortmund stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Signal Iduna Park, Borussia Dortmund have gone 8W 0D 2L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Signal Iduna Park. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Borussia Dortmund are significantly better at Signal Iduna Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Freiburg have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, SC Freiburg have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Borussia Dortmund 1.90 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Borussia Dortmund hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 7 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 1 for SC Freiburg, with 1 draws in between.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Borussia Dortmund and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 4.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Borussia Dortmund trading profile (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
SC Freiburg trading profile (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Dortmund 61% versus SC Freiburg 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Dortmund 64% | SC Freiburg 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 2.00 xG and SC Freiburg 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.188 / defence 0.854 | SC Freiburg attack 0.812 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.687 / away 1.452. Data: 64 Borussia Dortmund games / 64 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 60% | Draw 22% | SC Freiburg 18%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | SC Freiburg 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Dortmund (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Borussia Dortmund 40% | SC Freiburg 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Signal Iduna Park • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Apr 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 60% | Draw 22% | SC Freiburg 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 55% | xG Borussia Dortmund 2.00 / SC Freiburg 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.188 / def 0.854 | SC Freiburg attack 0.812 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.687 / away 1.452 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
1.01
SC Freiburg xG
55%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Signal Iduna Park.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg?
Borussia Dortmund 4 - 0 SC Freiburg.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at Signal Iduna Park.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 60% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg?
Record (9 meetings): Borussia Dortmund 7W | Draws 1 | SC Freiburg 1W.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg in?
Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. SC Freiburg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Borussia Dortmund's attack at 1.19x the league average against SC Freiburg's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SC Freiburg's attack versus Borussia Dortmund's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
60%
1.67
22%
4.49
18%
5.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
3.01
1.01
SC Freiburg xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
5.61
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
37%
2.74
13%
7.41
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
2%
41.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.01 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Borussia Dortmund's recent record stands at 36W 13D 15L from 64 games, a 1.89 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five.
SC Freiburg, meanwhile, have gone 28W 14D 22L across 64 games — 1.53 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Dortmund on 1.89 PPG, SC Freiburg on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Borussia Dortmund have managed 22W 5D 5L from 32 games — 2.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Freiburg's away record stands at 11W 7D 14L across 32 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.45 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Current Season
SC Freiburg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 36W 13D 15L in their last 64 games (1.89 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 28W 14D 22L in their last 64 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or SC Freiburg away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 2.22 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Borussia Dortmund or SC Freiburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, SC Freiburg in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2022, when Borussia Dortmund won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Dortmund's record when hosting SC Freiburg specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Borussia Dortmund
1
Draws
1
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 8, SC Freiburg have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 4-0 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
SC Freiburg see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Dortmund 53%, SC Freiburg 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Borussia Dortmund) and 53% (SC Freiburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; SC Freiburg in 34%; SC Freiburg in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play SC Freiburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Borussia Dortmund's recent matches and 41% of SC Freiburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 53% of SC Freiburg's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Borussia Dortmund run riot with a 4-0 hammering of SC Freiburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat SC Freiburg 4-0 at Signal Iduna Park, Regular Season - 31, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 2.00 xG and SC Freiburg 1.01 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SC Freiburg landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.19 / defence 0.85 against SC Freiburg attack 0.81 / defence 1.00, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 60% | Draw 22% | SC Freiburg 18%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 64%, SC Freiburg 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Dortmund 1.89 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Dortmund win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.41 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.