SC Freiburg 2-1 1. FC Heidenheim – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates SC Freiburg at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
1. FC Heidenheim make the trip to Europa-Park-Stadion to face SC Freiburg in Bundesliga (matchday 30). The match kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 15:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
SC Freiburg have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, SC Freiburg have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — SC Freiburg are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
1. FC Heidenheim (all games): 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, 1. FC Heidenheim have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in SC Freiburg's favour (1.30 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from SC Freiburg's last 10 home games and 1. FC Heidenheim's last 10 away games) — SC Freiburg have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, 1. FC Heidenheim in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for SC Freiburg, 2 for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 6 Dec 2025, ended SC Freiburg 1–2 1. FC Heidenheim — a 1. FC Heidenheim win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
SC Freiburg half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
1. FC Heidenheim half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 57% versus 1. FC Heidenheim 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 65% | 1. FC Heidenheim 64%). Note also that 1. FC Heidenheim surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while SC Freiburg recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 2.00 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.048 / defence 0.995 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.744 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.693 / away 1.467. 1. FC Heidenheim's attack rating of 0.744 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.09. Data: built from SC Freiburg's last 63 games and 1. FC Heidenheim's last 63.
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 59% | Draw 21% | 1. FC Heidenheim 20%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 1.71 | Draw 4.68 | 1. FC Heidenheim 4.99. The model has a clear lean to SC Freiburg (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Freiburg at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SC Freiburg's last 10 home games and 1. FC Heidenheim's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SC Freiburg 70% (last 10 home games) | 1. FC Heidenheim 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 30 | Venue: Europa-Park-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 19 April 2026 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 59% | Draw 21% | 1. FC Heidenheim 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG SC Freiburg 2.00 / 1. FC Heidenheim 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.048 / def 0.995 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.744 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.693 / away 1.467 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.09
1. FC Heidenheim xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim FAQs
What time does SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim kick off?
SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Europa-Park-Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
SC Freiburg 2 - 1 1. FC Heidenheim.
Where is SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park-Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim part of?
SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 30) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 59% chance of winning, 1. FC Heidenheim a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both SC Freiburg and 1. FC Heidenheim will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SC Freiburg's attack at 1.05x the league average against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — 1. FC Heidenheim's attack (0.74x) against SC Freiburg's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from SC Freiburg's last 63 games and 1. FC Heidenheim's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
59%
1.71
21%
4.68
20%
4.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
3.09
1.09
1. FC Heidenheim xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
4.99
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
13%
7.41
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
3%
36.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and 1. FC Heidenheim expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.09 for 1. FC Heidenheim, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SC Freiburg's recent record stands at 27W 14D 22L from 63 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-W in the last five.
1. FC Heidenheim, meanwhile, have gone 11W 13D 39L across 63 games — 0.73 PPG, with L-L-D-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Freiburg by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over 1. FC Heidenheim heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, SC Freiburg have managed 16W 7D 8L from their last 31 home games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1. FC Heidenheim's away record stands at 6W 5D 20L across their last 31 away games, a 0.74 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Heidenheim are on 1.06 scored and 2.08 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Current Season
1. FC Heidenheim
Current Season
SC Freiburg (Home) vs 1. FC Heidenheim (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SC Freiburg
Current Season
1. FC Heidenheim
Current Season
❓ SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim Form FAQs
What form are SC Freiburg and 1. FC Heidenheim in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 27W 14D 22L in their last 63 games (1.51 PPG), while 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 11W 13D 39L in their last 63 (0.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or 1. FC Heidenheim away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.77 PPG; 1. FC Heidenheim away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between SC Freiburg and 1. FC Heidenheim, the earliest from December 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 19 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Freiburg won 1. FC Heidenheim 0-3 SC Freiburg on 21 Sep 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Freiburg have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against 1. FC Heidenheim — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
SC Freiburg
1
Draws
2
1. FC Heidenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and 1. FC Heidenheim?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, SC Freiburg have won 3, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and 1. FC Heidenheim last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 April 2026: SC Freiburg 2-1 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and 1. FC Heidenheim?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Freiburg 74%, 1. FC Heidenheim 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for SC Freiburg and 58% for 1. FC Heidenheim. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / 1. FC Heidenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SC Freiburg and 1. FC Heidenheim matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of SC Freiburg's games and 55% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SC Freiburg and 1. FC Heidenheim matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of SC Freiburg's matches and 58% of 1. FC Heidenheim's.
Do SC Freiburg and 1. FC Heidenheim matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of SC Freiburg's recent matches and 81% of 1. FC Heidenheim's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Freiburg edge out 1. FC Heidenheim 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat 1. FC Heidenheim 2-1 at Europa-Park-Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 2.00 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.09 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.05 / defence 0.99 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.74 / defence 1.13, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 59% | Draw 21% | 1. FC Heidenheim 20%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 65%, 1. FC Heidenheim 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Freiburg arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.73. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Bundesliga fixtures — matchday 30
All Bundesliga fixtures →
More German football predictions →