FSV Mainz 05 0-1 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FSV Mainz 05 at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg meet at Mewa Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Form
FSV Mainz 05 (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FSV Mainz 05 at Mewa Arena this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SC Freiburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
SC Freiburg's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. FSV Mainz 05's 2.10 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of SC Freiburg's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to SC Freiburg, who have claimed 3 wins from 9 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 6 draws.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2025, ended 0–4 with SC Freiburg winning.
It is worth noting that SC Freiburg have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
FSV Mainz 05 — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
SC Freiburg — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FSV Mainz 05 58% versus SC Freiburg 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 53% | SC Freiburg 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 1.67 xG and SC Freiburg 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.882 / defence 0.865 | SC Freiburg attack 0.810 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.713 / away 1.451. Data: 62 FSV Mainz 05 games / 62 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 53% | Draw 24% | SC Freiburg 23%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | SC Freiburg 4.35. FSV Mainz 05 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
SC Freiburg lead the H2H ledger, but FSV Mainz 05 carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates FSV Mainz 05 as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FSV Mainz 05 if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: FSV Mainz 05 70% | SC Freiburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Mewa Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Apr 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 53% | Draw 24% | SC Freiburg 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG FSV Mainz 05 1.67 / SC Freiburg 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.882 / def 0.865 | SC Freiburg attack 0.810 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.713 / away 1.451 • Poisson stance: FSV Mainz 05 (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
1.02
SC Freiburg xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 12 April 2026 at Mewa Arena.
What was the final score in FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg?
FSV Mainz 05 0 - 1 SC Freiburg.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at Mewa Arena.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 53% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FSV Mainz 05 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg?
Record (9 meetings): FSV Mainz 05 0W | Draws 6 | SC Freiburg 3W.
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg in?
FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. SC Freiburg (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FSV Mainz 05's attack rating (0.88) and SC Freiburg's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SC Freiburg's attack (0.81x) against FSV Mainz 05's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FSV Mainz 05 Win
53%
1.90
24%
4.11
23%
4.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
2.69
1.02
SC Freiburg xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
4.34
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
19%
5.31
Win to Nil
19%
5.25
4%
23.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.6 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.02 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FSV Mainz 05's recent record stands at 22W 19D 21L from 62 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-W in the last five.
SC Freiburg, meanwhile, have gone 26W 14D 22L across 62 games — 1.48 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for FSV Mainz 05 against 1.48 for SC Freiburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FSV Mainz 05 have managed 10W 13D 8L from 31 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Freiburg's away record stands at 10W 7D 14L across 31 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.45 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Current Season
SC Freiburg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 22W 19D 21L in their last 62 games (1.37 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 26W 14D 22L in their last 62 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or SC Freiburg away?
FSV Mainz 05's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 1.39 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
SC Freiburg have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Freiburg won 4-0 on 30 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FSV Mainz 05 have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SC Freiburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
FSV Mainz 05
6
Draws
4
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, FSV Mainz 05 have won 0, SC Freiburg have won 4, and 6 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when FSV Mainz 05 0-1 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
SC Freiburg see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FSV Mainz 05 58%, SC Freiburg 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (FSV Mainz 05) and 55% (SC Freiburg).
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg in 32%; FSV Mainz 05 have failed to score in 26% of games; SC Freiburg in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FSV Mainz 05 play SC Freiburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of FSV Mainz 05's recent matches and 42% of SC Freiburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of FSV Mainz 05's recent games and 55% of SC Freiburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
FSV Mainz 05 have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SC Freiburg defy the odds to beat FSV Mainz 05 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat FSV Mainz 05 0-1 at Mewa Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.67 xG and SC Freiburg 1.02 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FSV Mainz 05 fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.88 / defence 0.86 against SC Freiburg attack 0.81 / defence 1.10, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 53% | Draw 24% | SC Freiburg 23%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a SC Freiburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 53%, SC Freiburg 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 1.37 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.