Union Berlin 1-2 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union Berlin at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Union Berlin host VfL Wolfsburg at Stadion An der Alten Försterei in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 April 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Union Berlin have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Union Berlin have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
VfL Wolfsburg — All Games: 0W 2D 8L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Union Berlin carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 0.80 vs 0.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Union Berlin, 4 for VfL Wolfsburg and 1 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2025, ended 1–3 with VfL Wolfsburg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Union Berlin trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
VfL Wolfsburg trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 54% and VfL Wolfsburg 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 52% | VfL Wolfsburg 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.97 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.831 / defence 1.101 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.996 / defence 1.397. League average goals — home 1.696 / away 1.449. VfL Wolfsburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.397 — this is suppressing Union Berlin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Union Berlin games / 63 VfL Wolfsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 47% | Draw 22% | VfL Wolfsburg 31%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.13 | Draw 4.55 | VfL Wolfsburg 3.23. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Union Berlin as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union Berlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.56 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 70% | VfL Wolfsburg 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 47% | Draw 22% | VfL Wolfsburg 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 68% | xG Union Berlin 1.97 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.831 / def 1.101 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.996 / def 1.397 | league avg home 1.696 / away 1.449 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.59
VfL Wolfsburg xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Union Berlin 1 - 2 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 47% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 31% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg?
Record (9 meetings): Union Berlin 4W | Draws 1 | VfL Wolfsburg 4W.
What form are Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Union Berlin's attack rating (0.83) and VfL Wolfsburg's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Wolfsburg's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
47%
2.13
22%
4.61
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
3.56
1.59
VfL Wolfsburg xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.17
Clean Sheet
20%
4.90
14%
7.16
Win to Nil
10%
10.46
4%
22.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 8.9 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.8 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.59 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union Berlin come into this having played 63 games, going 18W 19D 26L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L.
On the other side, VfL Wolfsburg sit at 1.02 PPG from 63 outings (16W 16D 31L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union Berlin on 1.16 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Union Berlin's home form reads 9W 13D 9L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, VfL Wolfsburg have taken 1.26 points per game from 31 outings (11W 6D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Union Berlin are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.51 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfL Wolfsburg in 71%.
Last 63 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Current Season
VfL Wolfsburg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 18W 19D 26L in their last 63 games (1.16 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 16W 16D 31L in their last 63 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.29 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
VfL Wolfsburg go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Union Berlin's record when hosting VfL Wolfsburg specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Union Berlin
1
Draws
5
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 4, VfL Wolfsburg have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Union Berlin 1-2 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg?
VfL Wolfsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 64%, VfL Wolfsburg 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Union Berlin) and 61% (VfL Wolfsburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play VfL Wolfsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Union Berlin's games and 64% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Union Berlin's matches and 61% of VfL Wolfsburg's.
Do Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as VfL Wolfsburg defy the odds to beat Union Berlin 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Wolfsburg beat Union Berlin 1-2 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 30, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.97 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.59 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Union Berlin fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.83 / defence 1.10 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.00 / defence 1.40, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 47% | Draw 22% | VfL Wolfsburg 31%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual VfL Wolfsburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 52%, VfL Wolfsburg 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.16 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfL Wolfsburg win broke the near-deadlock. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.