Union Berlin 0-3 RB Leipzig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union Berlin at 51% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Union Berlin welcome RB Leipzig to Stadion An der Alten Försterei in Bundesliga (matchday 3). Kick-off is Sunday 3 September 2023 at 17:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Union Berlin have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Union Berlin's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Union Berlin are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
RB Leipzig — last 10 games: 8W 0D 2L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, RB Leipzig have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. RB Leipzig's 2.40 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Union Berlin's 1.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Union Berlin hold a clear advantage across the 4 H2H matches in our data, with 4 wins compared to 0 for RB Leipzig and 0 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 11 Feb 2023, ended Union Berlin 2–1 RB Leipzig — a Union Berlin win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Union Berlin and goals — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Union Berlin trading profile (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
RB Leipzig trading profile (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 53% versus RB Leipzig 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 53% | RB Leipzig 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.93 xG and RB Leipzig 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 1.078 / defence 0.853 | RB Leipzig attack 1.091 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.994 / away 1.398. Data: built from Union Berlin's last 36 games and RB Leipzig's last 36. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 51% | Draw 24% | RB Leipzig 25%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 1.96 | Draw 4.09 | RB Leipzig 4.07. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.93 / 1.30) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record in our data (4 wins to 0), yet RB Leipzig are the in-form side right now — head-to-head edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Union Berlin as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Union Berlin 4 wins from 4 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Note a divergence: in-form RB Leipzig (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union Berlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Union Berlin 40% (last 10 home games) | RB Leipzig 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
The Poisson model's sample (Union Berlin 36 games, RB Leipzig 36) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 3 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Sunday 3 September 2023 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 51% | Draw 24% | RB Leipzig 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Union Berlin 1.93 / RB Leipzig 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 1.078 / def 0.853 | RB Leipzig attack 1.091 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.994 / away 1.398 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.30
RB Leipzig xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig FAQs
What time does Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig kick off?
Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 3 September 2023 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
Union Berlin 0 - 3 RB Leipzig.
Where is Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig part of?
Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 3) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 51% chance of winning, RB Leipzig a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Union Berlin and RB Leipzig will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Union Berlin's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against RB Leipzig's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.93. The same calculation in reverse, RB Leipzig's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Union Berlin's last 36 games and RB Leipzig's last 36, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
51%
1.96
24%
4.09
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
3.23
1.30
RB Leipzig xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
15%
6.88
Win to Nil
14%
7.20
4%
27.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and RB Leipzig expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.30 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union Berlin come into this having played 36 games, going 20W 8D 8L for 1.89 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, RB Leipzig sit at 1.92 PPG from 36 outings (21W 6D 9L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union Berlin on 1.89 PPG, RB Leipzig on 1.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Union Berlin's home form reads 12W 6D 0L across their last 18 home games, a 2.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.89 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, RB Leipzig have taken 1.39 points per game from their last 18 away games (7W 4D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.92 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of RB Leipzig's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union Berlin are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; RB Leipzig are on 1.97 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Union Berlin have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Early Season
RB Leipzig
Early Season
Union Berlin (Home) vs RB Leipzig (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union Berlin
Early Season
RB Leipzig
Early Season
❓ Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig Form FAQs
What form are Union Berlin and RB Leipzig in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 20W 8D 8L in their last 36 games (1.89 PPG), while RB Leipzig have gone 21W 6D 9L in their last 36 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or RB Leipzig away?
Union Berlin's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 2.33 PPG; RB Leipzig away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Union Berlin or RB Leipzig been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union Berlin have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, RB Leipzig in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from December 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 24 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Sep 2023, when RB Leipzig won Union Berlin 0-3 RB Leipzig.
Union Berlin's record when hosting RB Leipzig specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Union Berlin
2
Draws
3
RB Leipzig
Recent Meetings
❓ Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and RB Leipzig?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Union Berlin have won 5, RB Leipzig have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and RB Leipzig last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 April 2026: RB Leipzig 3-1 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and RB Leipzig?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 56%, RB Leipzig 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Union Berlin) and 61% (RB Leipzig). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; RB Leipzig in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / RB Leipzig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union Berlin and RB Leipzig matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Union Berlin's games and 56% of RB Leipzig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Union Berlin and RB Leipzig matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Union Berlin's matches and 61% of RB Leipzig's.
Do Union Berlin and RB Leipzig matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 83% of RB Leipzig's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant RB Leipzig run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Union Berlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Leipzig beat Union Berlin 0-3 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 3, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.93 xG and RB Leipzig 1.30 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Union Berlin fell 1.9 short of their projected output. RB Leipzig outscored their 1.30 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 1.08 / defence 0.85 against RB Leipzig attack 1.09 / defence 0.90, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 51% | Draw 24% | RB Leipzig 25%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a RB Leipzig win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 53%, RB Leipzig 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
RB Leipzig's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.89 PPG, RB Leipzig 1.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RB Leipzig win broke the near-deadlock. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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