SC Freiburg 2-4 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Freiburg at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SC Freiburg face Borussia Dortmund.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
SC Freiburg welcome Borussia Dortmund to Europa-Park Stadion in Bundesliga (matchday 4). Kick-off is Saturday 16 September 2023 at 15:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, SC Freiburg have gone 6W 0D 4L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
SC Freiburg at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Borussia Dortmund stand at 5W 5D 0L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Borussia Dortmund away from home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (SC Freiburg) versus 2.00 (Borussia Dortmund). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for SC Freiburg, 3 for Borussia Dortmund and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 4 Feb 2023, ended SC Freiburg 1–5 Borussia Dortmund — a Borussia Dortmund win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
SC Freiburg in-play tendencies (last 37 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Borussia Dortmund in-play tendencies (last 37 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 49% versus Borussia Dortmund 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 51% | Borussia Dortmund 68%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: SC Freiburg surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Borussia Dortmund have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Borussia Dortmund surrender HT leads in 26% of cases while SC Freiburg recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 43% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.48 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 0.887 / defence 0.748 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.021 / defence 0.845. League average goals — home 1.967 / away 1.438. SC Freiburg have a tight defence (rating 0.748), which is pulling Borussia Dortmund's projected output down. Data: built from SC Freiburg's last 37 games and Borussia Dortmund's last 37.
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 44% | Draw 29% | Borussia Dortmund 27%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 2.25 | Draw 3.48 | Borussia Dortmund 3.73. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Freiburg are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SC Freiburg 50% (last 10 home games) | Borussia Dortmund 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 4 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 September 2023 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 44% | Draw 29% | Borussia Dortmund 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG SC Freiburg 1.48 / Borussia Dortmund 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 0.887 / def 0.748 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.021 / def 0.845 | league avg home 1.967 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Borussia Dortmund xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund FAQs
What time does SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Europa-Park Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
SC Freiburg 2 - 4 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 4) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 44% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SC Freiburg's attack at 0.89x the league average against Borussia Dortmund's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus SC Freiburg's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SC Freiburg's last 37 games and Borussia Dortmund's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
44%
2.25
29%
3.48
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
2.57
1.10
Borussia Dortmund xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
15%
6.75
6%
16.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.4 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.10 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 37 outings, SC Freiburg have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 19W 8D 10L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Borussia Dortmund's form line: 23W 7D 7L from 37 games, 2.05 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Freiburg on 1.76 PPG, Borussia Dortmund on 2.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SC Freiburg have posted 2.06 PPG from their last 18 home games (11W 4D 3L).
On the road, Borussia Dortmund have gone 8W 4D 6L from their last 18 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Borussia Dortmund's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.35 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Borussia Dortmund in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Early Season
Borussia Dortmund
Early Season
SC Freiburg (Home) vs Borussia Dortmund (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SC Freiburg
Early Season
Borussia Dortmund
Early Season
❓ SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund Form FAQs
What form are SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 19W 8D 10L in their last 37 games (1.76 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 23W 7D 7L in their last 37 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
SC Freiburg's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 2.06 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.56 PPG.
Have SC Freiburg or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 26 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Jan 2022, when Borussia Dortmund won Borussia Dortmund 5-1 SC Freiburg.
SC Freiburg's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
SC Freiburg
1
Draws
8
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, SC Freiburg have won 1, Borussia Dortmund have won 8, and 1 has been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 April 2026: Borussia Dortmund 4-0 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Freiburg see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Freiburg 50%, Borussia Dortmund 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (SC Freiburg) and 56% (Borussia Dortmund).
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of SC Freiburg's recent matches and 56% of Borussia Dortmund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of SC Freiburg's recent games and 56% of Borussia Dortmund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of SC Freiburg's recent matches and 89% of Borussia Dortmund's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Dortmund cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over SC Freiburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat SC Freiburg 2-4 at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.48 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.10 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund outscored their 1.10 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 0.89 / defence 0.75 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.02 / defence 0.84, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 44% | Draw 29% | Borussia Dortmund 27%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Borussia Dortmund win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 51%, Borussia Dortmund 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.76 PPG, Borussia Dortmund 2.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Dortmund win broke the near-deadlock. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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