FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FSV Mainz 05 at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FSV Mainz 05 face Hamburger SV.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Hamburger SV travel to Mewa Arena to take on FSV Mainz 05 in Bundesliga (matchday 23). The game is scheduled for Friday 20 February 2026 at 19:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, FSV Mainz 05 stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FSV Mainz 05 at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Hamburger SV have recorded 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Hamburger SV have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (FSV Mainz 05) versus 1.60 (Hamburger SV). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, FSV Mainz 05 have won 0, Hamburger SV 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2025, ended FSV Mainz 05 0–4 Hamburger SV — a Hamburger SV win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FSV Mainz 05 in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Hamburger SV in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FSV Mainz 05 54% versus Hamburger SV 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 54% | Hamburger SV 67%). Note also that Hamburger SV surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while FSV Mainz 05 recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 1.52 xG and Hamburger SV 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.866 / defence 0.873 | Hamburger SV attack 0.683 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.702 / away 1.386. Hamburger SV's attack rating of 0.683 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.83. Data: built from FSV Mainz 05's last 56 games and Hamburger SV's last 21.
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 52% | Draw 29% | Hamburger SV 19%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 1.91 | Draw 3.48 | Hamburger SV 5.25. FSV Mainz 05 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FSV Mainz 05 are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FSV Mainz 05 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FSV Mainz 05 50% (last 10 home games) | Hamburger SV 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 23 | Venue: Mewa Arena • Kick-off: Friday 20 February 2026 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 52% | Draw 29% | Hamburger SV 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG FSV Mainz 05 1.52 / Hamburger SV 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.866 / def 0.873 | Hamburger SV attack 0.683 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.702 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: FSV Mainz 05 (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Hamburger SV xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV FAQs
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Friday 20 February 2026 at Mewa Arena.
What was the final score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV?
FSV Mainz 05 1 - 1 Hamburger SV.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at Mewa Arena.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 23) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 52% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FSV Mainz 05 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and Hamburger SV will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FSV Mainz 05's attack at 0.87x the league average against Hamburger SV's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hamburger SV's attack versus FSV Mainz 05's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FSV Mainz 05's last 56 games and Hamburger SV's last 21 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FSV Mainz 05 Win
52%
1.91
29%
3.48
19%
5.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
2.34
0.83
Hamburger SV xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
5.25
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
23%
4.37
4%
23.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 0.83 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FSV Mainz 05's recent record stands at 19W 15D 21L from 55 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Hamburger SV, meanwhile, have gone 22W 18D 15L across 55 games — 1.53 PPG, with D-D-D-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FSV Mainz 05 on 1.31 PPG, Hamburger SV on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FSV Mainz 05 have managed 9W 10D 8L from their last 27 home games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hamburger SV's away record stands at 9W 7D 11L across their last 27 away games, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 1.85 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV in 62%.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
Hamburger SV
Blended
FSV Mainz 05 (Home) vs Hamburger SV (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
Hamburger SV
Blended
❓ FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV Form FAQs
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 19W 15D 21L in their last 55 games (1.31 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 22W 18D 15L in their last 55 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or Hamburger SV away?
FSV Mainz 05's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 1.37 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 3 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2025. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 6 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Sep 2026, when FSV Mainz 05 won Hamburger SV 0-5 FSV Mainz 05.
Last 3 Meetings
1
FSV Mainz 05
1
Draws
1
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Hamburger SV?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, FSV Mainz 05 have won 1, Hamburger SV have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and Hamburger SV last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 September 2026: Hamburger SV 0-5 FSV Mainz 05.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FSV Mainz 05 52%, Hamburger SV 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (FSV Mainz 05) and 67% (Hamburger SV).
On the defensive side: FSV Mainz 05 have failed to score in 30% of games; Hamburger SV in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FSV Mainz 05 and Hamburger SV matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of FSV Mainz 05's recent matches and 56% of Hamburger SV's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FSV Mainz 05 and Hamburger SV matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of FSV Mainz 05's recent games and 67% of Hamburger SV's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and Hamburger SV matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of FSV Mainz 05's recent matches and 78% of Hamburger SV's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FSV Mainz 05 and Hamburger SV share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FSV Mainz 05 and Hamburger SV finished level at 1-1 at Mewa Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.52 xG and Hamburger SV 0.83 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.87 / defence 0.87 against Hamburger SV attack 0.68 / defence 1.03, drawn from 56/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 52% | Draw 29% | Hamburger SV 19%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 54%, Hamburger SV 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 1.31 PPG, Hamburger SV 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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