FC St. Pauli 1-3 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfL Wolfsburg at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC St. Pauli face VfL Wolfsburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC St. Pauli host VfL Wolfsburg at Millerntor-Stadion in Bundesliga (matchday 34). Kick-off is Saturday 16 May 2026 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Guide
FC St. Pauli — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, FC St. Pauli have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — FC St. Pauli are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, VfL Wolfsburg stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
VfL Wolfsburg away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC St. Pauli at 0.60 PPG versus VfL Wolfsburg's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from FC St. Pauli's last 10 home games and VfL Wolfsburg's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, FC St. Pauli have won 0, VfL Wolfsburg 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 14 Jan 2026, ended FC St. Pauli 1–2 VfL Wolfsburg — a VfL Wolfsburg win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
FC St. Pauli in-play and half-time data (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
VfL Wolfsburg in-play and half-time data (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC St. Pauli 43% versus VfL Wolfsburg 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 42% | VfL Wolfsburg 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 1.39 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 0.662 / defence 1.085 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.958 / defence 1.223. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.492. FC St. Pauli's attack rating of 0.662 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.39. VfL Wolfsburg's defence rating of 1.223 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC St. Pauli's projected output up. Data: built from FC St. Pauli's last 67 games and VfL Wolfsburg's last 67.
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 34% | Draw 24% | VfL Wolfsburg 41%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 2.92 | Draw 4.08 | VfL Wolfsburg 2.42. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfL Wolfsburg at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfL Wolfsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (FC St. Pauli's last 10 home games and VfL Wolfsburg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC St. Pauli 70% (last 10 home games) | VfL Wolfsburg 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 34 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 34% | Draw 24% | VfL Wolfsburg 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG FC St. Pauli 1.39 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 0.662 / def 1.085 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.958 / def 1.223 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.492 • Poisson stance: VfL Wolfsburg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
1.55
VfL Wolfsburg xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg FAQs
What time does FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg?
FC St. Pauli 1 - 3 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 34) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 34% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 41% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making VfL Wolfsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both FC St. Pauli and VfL Wolfsburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC St. Pauli's attack rating (0.66) and VfL Wolfsburg's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Wolfsburg's attack versus FC St. Pauli's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC St. Pauli's last 67 games and VfL Wolfsburg's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Wolfsburg Win
34%
2.92
24%
4.08
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
2.94
1.55
VfL Wolfsburg xG
2.92
34%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
21%
4.71
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
7%
13.75
10%
9.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.2 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.4 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 1.55 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 67 outings, FC St. Pauli have picked up 0.87 PPG on a 14W 16D 37L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
VfL Wolfsburg's form line: 17W 18D 32L from 67 games, 1.03 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC St. Pauli on 0.87 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC St. Pauli have posted 0.94 PPG from their last 33 home games (7W 10D 16L).
On the road, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 12W 7D 14L from their last 33 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
FC St. Pauli are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.46 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfL Wolfsburg in 70%.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Current Season
VfL Wolfsburg
Current Season
FC St. Pauli (Home) vs VfL Wolfsburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC St. Pauli
Current Season
VfL Wolfsburg
Current Season
❓ FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg Form FAQs
What form are FC St. Pauli and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 14W 16D 37L in their last 67 games (0.87 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 17W 18D 32L in their last 67 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
VfL Wolfsburg's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 0.94 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2024. They cover more than one competition — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
FC St. Pauli's record when hosting VfL Wolfsburg specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
FC St. Pauli
2
Draws
2
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and VfL Wolfsburg?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, FC St. Pauli have won 1, VfL Wolfsburg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: FC St. Pauli 1-0 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and VfL Wolfsburg?
VfL Wolfsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 42%, VfL Wolfsburg 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (FC St. Pauli) and 61% (VfL Wolfsburg).
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli have failed to score in 52% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC St. Pauli and VfL Wolfsburg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of FC St. Pauli's recent matches and 67% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC St. Pauli and VfL Wolfsburg matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of FC St. Pauli's recent games and 61% of VfL Wolfsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC St. Pauli and VfL Wolfsburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of FC St. Pauli's recent matches and 70% of VfL Wolfsburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfL Wolfsburg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC St. Pauli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Wolfsburg beat FC St. Pauli 1-3 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.39 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.55 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. VfL Wolfsburg outscored their 1.55 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 0.66 / defence 1.08 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.96 / defence 1.22, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 34% | Draw 24% | VfL Wolfsburg 41%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 42%, VfL Wolfsburg 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC St. Pauli 0.87 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfL Wolfsburg win broke the near-deadlock. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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